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Editorial / Commentary / Opinion
Todd Petersen : CERA Week: Shale gail
CERA week has come and gone. The biggest difference from last year is that 2010 was not all gloom and doom. Last year the world economic meltdown clouded and dominated the conference atmosphere even though presenters tried to keep a positive attitude.
On oil day, the positive outlook of Saudi Aramco along with their accomplishments forecast a bright future for The Kingdom. They currently produce 8 mm bpd with an additional 4 mm bpd in reserve. They have recently discovered large gas reserves and will concentrate in the next 5 years in developing these reserves to free up crude consumed locally for export.
On Gas day the majority of the presentations focused on the large and sometimes larger than life estimates of shale gas reserves. The current proven and estimated reserves of shale gas both in North America and around the world would indicate that gas has a very bright and long future as a preferred fuel in our growing economies. The estimates are for reserves to cover current consumption for hundreds of years.
Technology will also play a big role in all are future developments but one area it is impacting now is on increasing the recoverable reserves of old fields. In the past it was only possible to recover about 35% of a discovered field. New technology can improve the ratio by up to 20% with a new product called Bright Water that uses nano technology. A 5% improvement would increase our proved reserves by 5 more years.
Nuclear power also seems to be having a comeback and a glowing future. Recent loan guarantees from the US government for new plants in the USA will certainly encourage others to push ahead with new projects. It will also make it easier to expand existing ones. Russia and China now have very aggressive plans to build new facilities.
Climate and government policy going forward will have a huge social and economic impact on the world. Alternative energy will certainly be promoted and will create lots of new opportunities. Unfortunately in 2020, alternatives will only be a small percentage of the overall energy use.
In conclusion CERA Week was by far dominated by the Shale Gail. Whatever was said about crude and conventional natural gas availability it was confirmed this week that the future for shale gas is very bright.
Todd Peterson is a oil & gas consultant. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.Editor's Note: Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest of our readers.All comments posted and published on Petroleumworld, do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed in the comment as an endorsement of Petroleumworld. All comments expressed are private comments and do not necessary reflect the view of this website. All comments are posted and published without liability to Petroleumworld,
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