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Scott Sullivan :
Russia and China rescue obama

President Obama should not allow Middle East pessimism to become his rationale for rejecting fossil fuels and Big Oil as the centerpiece of US energy security. Although an Obama policy of rejecting "Big Oil" would reward his political base of environmental activists, and would deflect the anger of environmental activists from Obama to the oil companies, such an anti-Big Oil initiative from Obama would destroy US energy security as fossil fuels are abandoned and would indeed represent a “march of folly” for President Obama.

The reality is that the Middle East is making a decisive turn towards peace and stability, thanks to Russian and Chinese engagement in depth, with Russia in support of Syria and China in support of Afghanistan. In short, Ahmadinejad and his Nazi allies are on the way out. As a result, US access to the oil of the Middle East over the next 100 years and beyond is certain.

The only bad news in the Middle East comes from the recent diplomatic breakthrough of Iran's Nazi president Mahoud Ahmadinejad, who was able to convince Turkey and Pakistan to align with and his Nazi oriented "rejection front" of palestinian groups plus Hezbollah.

A worst case scenario is that Ahmadinejad is now positioned in the Middle East to open a strategic corridor from Germany through Croatia and the Balkans, and then through Turkey and Iran to Pakistan. Iran would use this strategic corridor as a safe haven for Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Palestinian rejection front groups that would be able to enter Lebanon, the PA, and Gaza at will via Syria. Meanwhile, Iran would become a regional superpower because it would have the capability to transport terrorists and their weapons from military hot spots in the Balkans and the Caucasus to Pakistan's training camps, where they can receive training by al Qaeda, Taliban, and Iran. Moreover, Iran and Pakistan can bring in North Korea again to revive their 1980's collaboration in technology development for nuclear weapons and intermediate range missiles. Germany is likely to be the first recipient of Iran's nuclear weapons, followed by Venezuela.

Russia and China have already taken little noticed but significant steps to contain Iran. First, Russia and China have several times rejected Iran's Nazi president Ahmadinejad's request for Iran's admittance to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Such a rejection is a blow to the Ahmadinejad's prestige because he personally attended several SCO meetings in order to lobby other SCO members for acceptance.

Second, Russia has taken a bold anti-Iran move by aligning with Syria, Russia has sold advanced weapons to Syria and that it will not sell to Iran, Russia has signed naval agreements with Syria, not with Iran. Russia is also strengthening Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Hezbollah and Hamas, all Syrian allies against Iran.

Third, in a major blow to Iran's prestige, Russia has frozen an $800 million sale of S-300 air defense missiles to Iran. Russia said its reading of the text of the UN resolution, drafted by the US, left Russia no option but to block the sale.

Fourth, China has also taken a bold anti-Iran and anti-Pakistan move by strengthening Afghanistan. In fact, shortly before Afghanistan President Karzai s must visit to the US last month, Karzai stopped in Beijing, where Karazi and China signed an agreement that provides for the replacement of US forces by Chinese peacekeeping forces (not Pakistani forces) as the world anticipates, once the US pulls out.

Moreover, China then added insult to injury in its diplomatic dealings with Ahmadinejad. He reportedly deeply resents that French President Sarkozy refuses to meet with him, as does Preisident Vladimir Putin of Russia. Admadinejad pressured China's government for a visa and an agreement to set up meetings with China's top leadership. Too bad. China gave Ahmadinejad a visa for Shanghai, not Beijing, where no senior officials were available for meetings with Ahmadinejad! Thanks to Russia and China, Iran is going nowhere.

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee and was the Senior Advisor for International Economics at the Crisis Management Center of the National Security Council, 1984 - 1986. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 06/15/2010

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Scott Sullivan : Russia and China rescue obama

Scott Sullivan :
Russia and China rescue obama