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Scott Sullivan :
Karzai will become Prince Sinahouk

President Obama is desperate to learn if US military experts can find flaws in GEN McChrystal's plan for US military operations in Afghanistan. In fact, McChrystal's plan was a failure as soon as the first draft was written in DoD's policy planning office for US Special Operations and low intensity conflict. Furthermore, McChrystal's plan was still a failure when it was cleared by the Assistant Secretary of Defense Secretary for Special Operations and low intensity conflict; then by Admiral Mullen and the Joint Staff; and finally by McChrystal and Petraeus personally.

McChrystal's paper failed US troops in Afghanistan for several reasons. First, the logistics for US troop support in Afghanistan depend almost entirely on safe passage for US convoys in Pakistan. Yet McChrystal made no effort to understand Pakistan's increasing alignment with Iran as a strategic partner, even though Iran pays its own very powerful Taliban faction to destroy US logistics with IED's and Iranian military attacks on US convoys in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Second, McChrystal's plan made no effort to understand Pakistan's loss of China as a strategic partner. The loss of China as Pakistan's main ally would significantly increase Pakistani dependence on Iran and the US in trade, economic support, and military support. The strengthening of bonds now underway between Iran, Pakistan, and the US is the exact opposite of what Obama promised would be our policy as we sent troops to Afghanistan. Obama said then that US troops in Afghanistan would help isolate Iran, which will soon have nsufficient numbers of nuclear weapons with which to attack Arabs, Israelis, and the US.

Third, McChrystals planning paper on Afghanistan and Pakistan made no effort to predict, or even better, facilitate the arrival of large scale diplomatic and military forces from communist China, which is aligned with Afghanistan, and Communist Russia, which is aligned with Syria.

What scenario do we want in Afghanistan? The answer is simple. We want a Cambodia 1976 scenario in Afghanistan, when Cambodian nationalist insurgents called the Khmer crushed Vietnam's invading forces in a five year war of liberation led by Pol Pot, China, North Korea and Thailand.

This Vietnam scenario serves as an effective model for Afghanistan because each of Afghanistan's leathus, ders is able to select a key role for themselves, from Vietnam's model, in today's anti-imperialist struggle -- Thus, Karzai is Sihanouk, Mullah Omar is Khieu Samphan, and Osama bin Ladin is the Khmer Rouge, Pakistan and iran are Vietnam, and Afghanistan is Cambodia. Plus, we know that Prince Sihanouk and the Kher Rouge defeated Vietam, even though at that time (the 1970's), Vietnam was seen as invincable, especially at the hands of a Third World partisan force such as the Khmer Rouge. But, if the KR can prevail over Vietnam, so can the Taliban and al-Qaeda prevail over Pakistan and Iran. As the Black Panthers used to say in the 1970's -- Dare to struggle, dare to win!

The big problem for US relations with Pakistan today is always greedy and, even worse, stupid in making demands on the US. Moreover, Pakidstan is too stupid to discern the differences between issues that the US could deliver, and issues where the US cannot deliver. For example, Pakistan still makes non-negotiable demands that the US recognize Pakistan's territorial claims on India(Kashmir) and Afghanistan. Pakistan ignores the fact that Afghanistan and India make a compelling refutation of Pakistan's territorial claims, and that a US alignment with Pakistan on these issues would bring major US-India conflicts and US-Afghan conflicts.

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee and was the Senior Advisor for International Economics at the Crisis Management Center of the National Security Council, 1984 - 1986. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 06/23/2010

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Scott Sullivan : Karzai will become Prince Sinahouk

Scott Sullivan :
Karzai will become Prince Sinahouk