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Scott Sullivan :
Karzai must learn from Cambodia

President Obama has dismissed GEN McChrystal as the commander of US forces in Afghanistan. Good. Obama should now reject GEN McChrytal's strategy plan for Afghanistan. McChrystal's plan is flawed because it identifies Taliban and al Qaeda as the US's main enemy in Afghanistan; instead of Iran and Pakistan. Moreover, because McChrystal cannot accurately identify the main enemy, he cannot identify a US path to victory in Afghanistan. In my view, a path to victory can best be found in Afghanistan by imitating Cambodia's strategy of a national liberation war that brought Cambodia to victory over Vietnam. Below you will find an assessment of the flaws in McChrystal's strategy plan for Afghanistan, as well as a description of Canmbidia's national liberation strategy that would produce victory in Afghanistan.

First, as noted earlier, McChrystal praises Pakistan as a valuable ally, when, in truth, Pakistan is a primary US adversary. McChrystal praises Pakistan for allowing US forces to use Pakistani territory as the main supply route for supporting US military operations in Afghanistan. Yet, McChrystal ignores Pakistan's increasing alignment with Iran as a strategic partner, even as Iran pays its own Taliban factions to destroy US logistics with IED's and military attacks on US convoys in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Second, McChrystal's ignores the adverse impact on US policy of Pakistan's loss of China as a strategic partner. In recent months China has reoriented its policy in South Asia in favor of Afghanistan and against Pakistan, as evidenced by the recent Afghanistan-China agreement that Chinese peacekeepers ( not Palistani!) will replace US forces as they are withdrawn from Afghanistan. The loss of China as Pakistan's main ally would significantly increase Pakistani dependence on Iran and the US. In short, Iran is becoming a main beneficiary of Obama's new policies as China abandons Pakistan.

Third, McChrystals planning paper on Afghanistan makes no effort to prdict, or even better, facilitate the arrival in of large scale diplomatic and military forces from communist China, which is aligned with Afghanistan, and fron Communist Russia, which is aligned with Syria.

What scenario do we want in Afghanistan? The answer is simple. We want a Cambodia 1980's scenario in Afghanistan, when Cambodian nationalist insurgents known as the Khmer Rouge crushed Vietnam's invading forces in a five year war of liberation led by Pol Pot, China, North Korea and Thailand.

This Vietnam scenario serves as an effective model for Afghanistan because each of today's Afghanistan's leaders is able to select a key role for themselves, from Vietnam's model, in today's Afghan anti-imperialist struggle -- Thus, Karzai would become Prince Sihanouk, Mullah Omar is Khieu Samphan, and Osama bin Laden is Pol Pot. Afghanistan, of course, would be 1980's Cambodia. Meanwhile, Pakistan and Iran will take Vietnam's role as an aggressor state.

Afghanistan's nationalists should welcome the concept of looking to Cambodia for inspiration in developing a war of Afghan liberation against its own foreign adversaries. We know that Prince Sihanouk and the Kher Rouge defeated Vietnam, even though at that time, Vietnam was seen as invincable, especially at the hands of a Third World partisan force such as the Khmer Rouge. But, if the KR can prevail over Vietnam, so can the Taliban and al-Qaeda prevail over Pakistan and Iran. As the Black Panthers used to say in the 1970's -- Dare to struggle, dare to win!

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee and was the Senior Advisor for International Economics at the Crisis Management Center of the National Security Council, 1984 - 1986. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 06/25/2010

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Scott Sullivan : Karzai must learn from Cambodia

Scott Sullivan :
Karzai must learn from Cambodia