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Editorial / Commentary / Opinion
Scott Sullivan : Obama's options in Afghanistan
President Obama has three options for withdrawing from Afghanistan. Here are the details.
Option one -- Immediate cease fire, withdrawal of US forces. This
Option Two would represent the continuation of existing US policy in Afghanistan with the surge of 30,000 additional US combat forces in Afghanistan. these forces would remain committed to a six month counterinsurgency campaign that would "clear, hold, and rebuild" Afghanistan's territory now under Taliban control.
Unfortunately, the Obama-Petraeus strategy is flawed because most successful counterinsurgency campaigns take several years to attain a victory, as opposed to the six months provided US forces in the Obma-Petraeus campaign for Afghanistan.
Furthermore, most counterinsurgency campaigns -- even those that are given several years to produce results -- typically meet with failure more than success. Finally , Option Two will fail because it does not identify the Pakistan-Iran axis as Afghanistan's main enemy, not al Qaeda and Taliban.
Option three (my preference) is to reinstate Gen McChrystal with instructions to mobilize Taliban and al Qaeda in an Afghan war of national liberation against the Iran-Pakistan axis, backstopped by China and Russia. US policy in Option Three would have two main objectives, adapted from Mao's political strategy in WW II. The US shall reach out to unite 90% of Taliban and al-Qaeda behind the national liberation strategy of Afghanistan's populace. Just as importantly, at the appropriate moment, Gen McChrystal shall reach out to co-opt Pakistan, with help from China, while isolating and weakening Iran to the maximum possible extent. After the US has co-opted Pakistan, Isolated Iran, and placed Chinese troops as peacekeepers in Afghanistan, Gen McChrystal can begin the immediate withdrawal of all US troops in Afghanistan.
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee and was the Senior Advisor for International Economics at the Crisis Management Center of the National Security Council, 1984 - 1986. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
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