Scott Sullivan : Does Haiti
need the Khmer Rouge?
Shortly after Ernesto Che Guevara defied Fidel Castro in 1968 by sending his partisans into Bolivia's mountains to establish a base for a hemispheric communist revolution, the big three communist leaders Brezhnev, Mao and Castro came to the same realization that they had to stop Guevara, and fast. After appropriate Latin American consultations, Brezhnev sent a message directing the leadership of the Communist Party of Bolivia to terminate all deliveries of supplies to Guevara and his forces, who were deep in the mountains by this time and were unable to turn back. Guevara was soon hunted down and executed by a combined force of CIA and the Bolivian military.
In a similar fashion, a s Russia and China today prepare to take a greater role in Latin American security, they are horrified to discover they must now cope with three new Che Guevaras Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Evo Morales in Bolivia, and Jean Bertrand Aristide in Haiti, who wants to take power from the US to turn Haiti over to Chavez and Morales and their neo-Guevara imperialist plan.
So, who will stop these three new Che Guevaras? My guess is that China, not Russia, this time will take the lead. China most likely to present two options-- soft and hard -- for dealing first with Aristide, whose racist anti-Anglo views are demoralizing US personnel serving in Haiti, while emboldening Hugo Chavez to defy US policy in Haiti.
China's soft option plan would be to identify Venezuela as the 1972 imperialist Vietnam and Haiti as 1972 Vietnamese occupied Cambodia, so China could impose on Haiti a Khmer Rouge ultra-patriotic and non-violent revolution from above, after adoption of an anti-Chavez unity pact by all political parties. Under terms of this agreement, Venezuelans and their terrorist Iranian allies would no longer be permitted to enter Haiti.
China's hard option would to establish an armed Khmer Rouge group in Haiti that would take responsibility for pushing all Venezuelans from Haiti, within three months. During this period of transition, Haiti would invite Brazil to expand its peacekeeping force in Haiti and to take over the businesses of Venezuelans who have returned home. As a result, Hugo Chavez would be forced to abandon his dream of annexing Haiti and most likely Bolivia as well, after which he would have to fight for his political survival in Caracas.
The good news is that if China can successfully play the Khmer Rouge card in Cambodia and Haiti, China might be able to advance regional stability by playing the Khmer Rouge card in new locales, such as Afghanistan, where the KR would displace and co-opt the Taliban. In general, China should collaborate with KR as the primary revolutionary nationalist organization in Afghanistan while ignoring Taliban. China should favor the Khmer Rouge over the Taliban above because the KR favors equal rights for women, which the Taliban opposes; because the Khmer Rouge wants to govern and reform Afghan state, whereas the Taliban does not; because the KR will cooperate with foreign government officials and reprentatives of humanitarian NGOs, while Taliban will not (this is why the Taliban surrended power a tribal government when it last controlled Kabul); and because the Khmer Rouge has a communist and progressive China as a sponsor, whereas the Taliban is directed by reactionary and irredentist Pakistan.
Finally, China has excellent reasons for intervening in Haiti as a means of boosting Brazil's role as Latin America's superpower. China and Brazil, supported by the US and Russia would gaiin enormous credibility in the Caribbean and South America by stabilizing Haiti, and possibly even Bolivia, while deterring Hugo Chavez.
Does anyone have a better plan?
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee and was the Senior Advisor for International Economics at the Crisis Management Center of the National Security Council, 1984 - 1986. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
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Petroleumworld News 01/25/2011
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