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Scott Sullivan :Will NeoCons partition Libya?

 


Why are the NeoCons pushing the US into military confrontation with Libya (as with the no-fly zone) and other Arab states  The answer is simple.  The NeoCons  believe that US intrersts in the Middle East  now converge with Iran and not with the Arab states.  The NeoCons moved to this anti-Arab pro-Iran policy as a result of the Paul  Wolfowitz-Ahmed Chalabi  partnership during the early days of the US military occupation of Iraq.  Wolfowitz at that time was SecDef Rumsfeld's Deputy for Iraq policy,  while Chalabi was a prominent pro-Iran leader of the Iraqi exile leadership.  In fact, under the Wolfowitz guidelines for US military ocupation in Iraq, the US excluded any role for Turkish and Saudi troops in Iraq.  Meanwhile, Wolfowitz permitted Iran to send to Iraq thousands of military advisors and elite troops that Itan used to provoke civil war in Iraq as well as Iraq's partition into three ethnic mini-states at the expense of Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Until this year, The NeoCons were on track with a plan for partitioning Iraq first and then partitioning Turkey, which is the Arab states'  most powerful ally. against Iran.

 The NeoCon political calculation was that Iraq's partition would liberate the Iraqi Kurds who would establish – with Iran's assistance --the first independent Kurdish state.  That state would soon come under control of the Kurdish PKK terrorists who would destabilize Turkey with military attacks from Iraqi Kurdistan.

However, contrary to NeoCon Iranian expectations, Iraq and Turkey now appear to be stable, thanks to the skill of Iraq's new leaders.  Thus, the NeoCons must look beyond Iraq and Turkey to salvage their anti- Arab pro-partition strategy.  To be precise, the NeoCons now must turn to the partition of Libya and the Maghreb states as the only game in town.  The NeoCons anticipate that Libya's partition, in the wake of Sudan's partition, could increase pressure for additional border adjustments throughout the Middle East, including in Iraq and Turkey, to the point where Iraqi reconciliation efforts could collapse entirely.  As noted earlier, Iraq's crisis would destabilize Turkey.

In view of this NeoCon Iran threat, what should the US do now?  I think three new US policies are desirable.

First, we need to stay in step with Russia and China in the Middle East.  This Obama must continue to say NO to a no-fly zone.

Second, we should ignore the NeoCons.  Why waste time and energy by meeting with NeoCons when they ignore all policy recommendations from non-NeoCon sources? Plus, the NeoCons have no new ideas for resolving problems. 

Third, along these lines of isolating the NeoCons, we should inform Gaddafi that we share his concerns that the Libya faces partition as a result of joint action by the NeoCons and Iran.  We believe the US and Libyan governments can best meet this NeoCon-Iranian threat by bringing new leaders into play to resolve policy issues.  To this end, we ask should ask Gaddafi to select Libya's new leader, in consultation with Libya's newly empowered citizens groups, provided such groups agree to reject all efforts by neighboring states to acquire Libyan territory.  The new Libyan leader shall respond to imperialist threats against Libyan territory with a national policy of “No surrender, not one inch.” 

Fourth, President Obama should replace his NeoCon Secretary of State.



Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee and was the Senior Advisor for International Economics at the Crisis Management Center of the National Security Council, 1984 - 1986. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 03/07/2011


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