Burggraben: Oil is going to $100 !
Are you ready for triple digit oil prices?
A new oil order?
We are in a boom bust cycle, with no end in sight, rather than a “new oil order” and shale oil will contribute to, not dampen it...
Consensus forecasts assume Brent oil prices to be anchored around $55 (+/-5) a barrel until 2020 due to the (endless) supply of the fast-cycle barrel from shale rock in North America, making shale the new “marginal” and hence price-setting barrel or “swing producer”. In addition, the market seems to trade of an expectation of elevated year-end commercial oil and product inventory levels (when compared to their 5-year average), possibly from an expectation that OPEC will return to a policy of competing for market share and thus flooding the market again at year-end and once their production cut agreement expires.
Lastly, the media has created a hype about the EV revolution which in some case led to the interpretation of “stranded resources” which will soon lead producers worldwide to compete for a diminishing number of clients. In combination, these opinions continue suppressing sentiment for oil related investments in financial markets up until today. But a quick glance at the oil price, hovering close to $70 a barrel in mid-January, suggests earlier predictions that the shale era would usher in a period of “lower for longer” prices are starting to look premature.
“Dominance” by one supply region of the100 million barrel a day global oil market remains, in our view, elusive and $55 is no more likely to be a “new normal” than $100 was thought to be five years ago.
Let us explain...
The presentation compiled by Buggraben is one of the most elaborate and comprehensive oil slide decks ever created. We think this slide deck will help answer most of the questions you have on the oil markets.
Editor's Note: This commentary was originally published by HFIR's Blog, on Seeking Alpha, 04/28/2018. Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest of our readers and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Petroleumworld and its owners.
Link to original article.
All comments posted and published on Petroleumworld, do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed in the comment as an endorsement of Petroleumworld.
Use Notice:This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of issues of environmental and humanitarian significance. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml.
All works published by Petroleumworld are in accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.Petroleumworld has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is Petroleumworld endorsed or sponsored by theoriginator.Petroleumworld encourages persons to reproduce, reprint, or broadcast Petroleumworld articles provided that any such reproduction identify the original source, http://www.petroleumworld.com or else and it is done within the fair use as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law.
If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Internet web links to http://www.petroleumworld.com are appreciated.
Copyright© 1999-2018 Petroleumworld or respective author or news agency. All rights reserved.
We welcome the use of Petroleumworld™ stories by anyone provided it mentions Petroleumworld.com as the source.
Other stories you have to get authorization by its authors.Internet web links to http://www.petroleumworld.com are appreciated.
Petroleumworld welcomes your feedback and comments, share your thoughts on this article, your feedback is important to us!
Petroleumworld News 05/07/18
We invite all our readers to share with us
their views and comments about this article.
Send this story to a friend
Write to firstname.lastname@example.org
By using this link, you agree to allow PW
to publish your comments on our letters page.
Any question or suggestions,
please write to: email@example.com
Best Viewed with IE 5.01+ Windows NT 4.0, '95,
'98,ME,XP, Vista, Windows 7,8 +/ 800x600 pixels