ISSUES....
Inside, confidential, off the record

 

Hunt Oil calling 911?

The bad news is that the US is retreating from Iraq. The good news is Iran will not take over. Mutada al-Sadr will take power in Iraq, aided by all neighboring states but Iran. Signs of the US retreat from Iraq are multiplying. US diplomats and civilian workers are now confined to the embassy Green zone. US efforts to convince the UK to reinforce Basra, Iraq's only port, are perfunctory. In fact, the UK is turning over Basra to Sadr. Meanwhile, the US is accepting Barzani's ultimatums. Most importantly, the US now accepts Hunt Oil's move against PM Maliki with the Hunt oil contract with the Kurds, bypassing Baghdad. Although the US may depart Iraq, it is also true that Iran cannot take over from the US. Muqtada al-Sadr and the Iraqi nationalists will win, even though Iraq will go through a brief war of liberation against Iran.

Here is the lineup.

Supporting Iran will be 20 percent of the Iraqi population including Kurds and the pro-Iran Shia (Badr Brigade, SCIRI). This pro-Iran faction is small and will not control a single major Iraqi city or port. Opposing Iran will be 80 percent of the Iraqi population including most Shia and all Iraqi Sunnis. Sadr already controls most important Iraqi cities including Baghdad and Basra. Moreover, Iraqi neighbors aside from Iran will support Baghdad, as will the major oil companies. Finally, in a curious way, US-Sadr relations wiill improve as the US begins withdreawing forces, as with UK-Sadr relations. At the end of the day, the concept of Sadr-Bush coalition in Iraq and the region is still very much alive, with the Kurds on the outside.

The most important question: How will Hunt Oil call 911?

Commentary from Dennis Garthman / 09 17 07

For more on interesting comments, you can subscribe to The Gartman Letter by contacting Dennis Garthman: Phone 757 238 9346, Fax 757 238 9346 or dennis@thegartmanletter.com

Petroleumworld 09 20 07

 

ISSUES.... Is an independent journalist effort from Petroleumworld, on Inside, Confidential
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