ISSUES....
Inside,
confidential, off the record
Latin Summit
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez arrived in the
northern Brazilian city of Recife on 25 March to review with
Brazilian President Lula
the Abreu e Lima petroleum refinery, to be built under an agreement
between Petrobras and PDVSA. The meeting itself resulted in little
more than photo opportunities, but it did reveal a growing weakness
in Chavez’s position. By the end of the summit, Chavez revealed
he doesn’t have the money to pay for his end of the refinery.
He agreed in principle to a regional military alliance, and signed
deals that open up more trade flowing from Brazil to Venezuela.
Contrary to what many believe, Lula and Chavez are not good friends.
They do have some ideological overlap, but Lula is interested
in seeing his country take the regional leadership role for good.
And if he has to crush Chavez to make that happen, so be it.
But Lula’s tactics are not direct. He’d rather smile
and hug Chavez, and only afterwards use Petrobras, a military
alliance, and an unequal trade balance to pull Venezuela into
a dependency that forces Chavez to acquiesce to Brazil’s
political leadership in the region.
It is no secret that PDVSA has a cash flow problems.
Chavez has outspent his enormous oil windfall and despite the
high price of
Venezuelan heavy crude, PDVSA cannot keep up with the production
necessary to sustain Chavez’s expenditure appetite. It’s
a matter of expertise and the ability to run an efficient refinery.
Petrobras has both.
The Abreu e Lima refinery will have the capacity to produce some
200,000 barrels of oil a day with the potential of expansion to
400,000. Talk of the refinery has been ongoing since 2005 with
no formal agreement in place.
During the presidential summit, no formal agreement
was reached, indicating that Chavez simply doesn’t have
the cash to put up his part the US$4 billion price tag for the
refinery.
Most in Brazil expect Petrobras to build the refinery
itself, scrapping the proposed 60-40 split between Petrobras
and PDVSA.
Lula’s bet is that by 2010, when construction of the refinery
is expected to be complete, Chavez will have no choice but to do
what it takes to get PDVSA crude oil into the Petrobras heavy crude
oil refinery.
Lula has also moved to arrange agreements to continue
exporting to Venezuela. Milk, beef, and other foodstuffs are
at the top of
the list, and trade between the two countries is expected to rise
from US$5 billion in 2007 to US$8 billion in 2008. This increase
in trade will undoubtedly become unbalanced in Brazil’s favor
as Venezuela continues to import the food its own farmers and merchants
can no longer sell Venezuelans at competitive prices.
Finally, with talk of the South American Defense
Council on the regional agenda, it is likely Venezuela will sign
onto the agreement.
Brazil’s Defense Minister will travel to Caracas in the middle
of April, and it is possible he obtains backing from the Venezuelan
military. It would pave the way to bring other countries on board.
Along with Venezuela, there is some indication that Brazil will
pull in Bolivia, Colombia, Guyana, Ecuador, Peru, and Paraguay.
This summit did little for Chavez. He did manage
to secure more foodstuffs for Venezuela and indicate that he’s at least
interested in the military alliance. For Brazil, the summit was
enough to solidify in Lula’s mind what many in Brazil have
been thinking all along. It was wise to let Chavez act like the
regional leader for a time. He had the money and some interesting
ideas. But he burned hot and fast. In the coming months and years,
it will become undeniably clear to Chavez and the rest of South
America that Brazil is coming into its own and that Chavez was
just a fad.
- Samuel
Logan /International Analyst Network. /01 Apr 2008
/
Petroleumworld
News 04/03/08
ISSUES....
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