ISSUES....
Inside,
confidential, off the record
Clock ticking
The attached op-ed first appeared in Petroleumworld.com
on June 1 2006. It
predicts an early defeat for Iran in Iraq and for Hugo Chavez
in Bolivia.
Nothing has changed since this optimistic forecast was first prepared.
If
anything, the position of Iran and Hugo Chavez has gotten weaker.
On the Bolivia issue, see Jack Chang's article
"Morales's presidency
aggravating longtime divisions," San Jose Mercury News, 23
August 2006.
On the Iran issue, Turkey, Russia and Saudi Arabia
are alert to Iran's plan
to dominate the Middle East. Syria and Hezbollah may soon join
this team.
Iran cannot hope to prevail over their opposition.
To
put it another way, the clock is ticking for Iran and Hugo Chavez,
despite the support they receive from US appeasement policies.
Scott
Sullivan
Lagniappe
Scott Sullivan: Iraq
will stop Iran; Bolivia will stop Chavez
The Bush Administration has erred by appeasing Iran and Hugo Chavez
because it has picked the losing side. Iraq will stop Iran, and
Bolivia will stop Hugo Chavez.
President
Bush's pro-appeasement record is clear. He/ has ignored (and therefore
supported) Iran's takeover of Iraq and Hugo Chavez's takeover
of Bolivia. US power sharing with Ahmadinejad and Chavez -- not
containment -- is what President Bush has in mind.
Moreover,
Bush has set out to intimidate the House of Representatives, whichis
strongly anti-Iran and anti-Chavez. Bush hopes to deter the House
from acting on these sentiments. Tensions between the House and
Bush are such that some House members are now speaking of impeaching
Bush's Attorney General for approving an FBI raid on the office
of a member of the House.
Positive Indicators in Iraq
Western
media are widely reporting Iran's takeover of Basra, which is
Iraq's "strategic gateway" that controls Iraq's oil
exports as well as the supply lifeline for US troops (see Knight
Ridder and UPI for two excellent reports). Iran's control of Basra,
if consolidated, wll lead to Iran's control of Iraq as a whole,
and will turn 130,000 US troops in Iraq into virtual Iranian hostages.
Iran
is already calling the shots in Iraq, with the establishment of
an Iran-Iraq Border Commission from which the US is excluded.
Moreover, Iraq's foreign minister took Iran's side on the nuclear
issue by saying that Iran was not planning a military nuclear
program. Ambassador Khalilzad -- can you check this out and ask
that the FM's statement be withdrawn? If it is not withdrawn,
it signals the advent of an Iraq-Iran axis in the Middle East,
as well as the collapse of US coercion policies on Iranian nukes,
given the presence of 130,000 potential US hostages for Iran now
trapped in Iraq.
Fortunately,
neither Iraq's Shia opposition, which includes Muqtada al-Sader,
nor the US House of Representatives, who are protective of the
safety of US troops in Iraq (unlike the Bush Administration),
will permit such an Iranian victory. In addition, Iraq's Sunnis,
backed by Saudi Arabia and even Syria, will resist Iran. In other
words, Iran's power grab in Iraq will succeed only in uniting
all of Iran's adversaries, while alienating Syria.
Positive Indicators in Bolivia.
Bolivia's
anti-Morales/Chavez political opposition, Bolivia's private sector,
and outside investors are also pushing back against a Chavez takeover.
Outside investment in Bolivia (and Venezuela) is evaporating due
to Morales's confiscations of private property. Bolivia is heading
for an economic crisis. Most importantly, Bolivia's opposition
is now objecting to Evo's plans to import Venezuelan weapons and
military personnel to set up a so-called "popular militia."
Evo's efforts in this direction are leading Bolivia straight into
civil war. See today's Washington Times for a more detailed assessment.
Positive Indicators at World Cup
Strong
opposition exists within Germany and internationally against the
attendance of Iranian president Ahmadinejad at the World Cup games
in Germany, beginning on June 9. President Ahmadinejad is now
letting it be known that he "may be too busy" to attend.
Excellent! This guy is a doppelgaenger for Hitler (such a wonderful
German word meaning a similar but not exact replica of the original)
and has no business with the civilized community.
Indications
are that Ahmadinejad is planning three major campaigns of ethnic
cleansing on a scale that will make Slobodan Milosevic look like
a petty thief. First, Iran will drive all the Sunnis from Iraq,
and use Iraq to consolidate Iranian control of the Persian Gulf
and the entire Middle East.
Second,
Iran will drive all the Jews, along with secular and Christian
Palestinians, from "Palestine." Third, Iran will then
turn on its domestic Azeri
community -- some 30 million strong and increasingly pro-Turkey.
Iran's
Azeris want no part of an Iranian empire in the region, which
at some point entails confrontation with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Iran is already an ally
of Armenia, much to Turkey's discomfort.
Iran
will send large numbers of Azeris to Turkey to remove a potential
threat to the stability of Iran's theocratic regime. In a recent
"test balloon," a leading official Iranian newspaper
printed a cartoon depicting Iran's Azeris to Turkic-speaking cockroaches,
a provocation that led to days of rioting and several deaths in
Iran. Remember, whatever Ahmadinejad does to the Sunnis, Jews,
and non-Islamist Palestinians, he will do to the Azeris. To put
it anotherway, if Ahmadinejad chooses to pursue ethnic racist
national socialist policies abroad, he will do so at home as well.
Of course this entire plan is insane. So was Hitler's, but he
went ahead anyway. For those observers who would like to see President
Ahamadinejad attend the World Cup, be aware he would take this
as a green light for his ambitions,
and press on accordingly.
Recommendation.
For
a more detailed action plan on Iran, first published in Petroleumworld.com,
see below.
Scott Sullivan:
10
Point US Action Plan on Iran Iran is a danger to global stability,
regardless of the outcome of the UN debate on nukes. Iran must
be rolled back or it will dominate the Middle East, the Persian
Gulf, and Central Asia. Iran is now in partnership with Osama
bin Ladin to this end. Such a reality presents an intolerable
threat to stability in those three separate and strategic regions.
Iran is also threatening Latin America, which could magnify a
US immigration crisis, via support for Hugo Chavez. Again, Iran
is a global threat.
Here
is an action program on Iran. The main elements are solidifying
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's (SCO) anti-Iran stance;
promoting Azerbaijani and Iraqi resistance against Iran; mobilizing
the Sunni states against Iran; and barring the attendance of Iran's
president to the World Cup games. Additional economic and political
sanctions can then be imposed by the UN as appropriate to deal
with the nuclear issue. Stopping Iran in Latin
America will be addressed in a separate note.
Most
importantly, the measures suggested in this note should be considered
as permanent until Iran abandons its global expansionist agenda.
Moreover, a US focus on nuclear issues should not be used in a
way that leads to US inaction on the regional security issues.
In other words, don't sacrifice Iraq and Azerbaijan in the name
of NPT observance, especially because Iran can still engineer
a nuclear break out.
1. Ask SCO to clarify that it will not defend
Iran under any scenario.
2.
Ask for immediate SCO observer status for Azerbaijan and Iraq,
both of which Iran is trying to pull into its orbit.
3.
Ask Azerbaijan to support pro-US Azeris in Iran, and to ask them
to speak against Iran's plan to annex Azerbaijan and Iraq, disrupt
the Middle East
peace process, and acquire nukes.
4.
Ask Iraq to request Iran to withdraw its unauthorized military
and civilian personnel from Iraq, and abandon effforts to dominate
Iraq. Iran should return Basra to full Iraqi control, and relinquish
control over Iraq's Interior ministry via the SCIRI party. The
US should work with Iraqi forces
to seal the Iran-Iraq border.
5.
Press Iran not to supply Hezbollah via Iraq, especially as a pretext
to build up an Iranian presence in Iraq.
6.
Consider offering Iraq and Azerbaijan SCO or NATO security guarantees
against Iran.
7. Ask Iran to reaffirm full support for Iraq's
territorial integrity.
8. Ask the Sunni states to mobilize against Iran
by supporting Iraq and by
deterring Shia activism in the region.
9. Ask Iran to repudiate support from Osama bin
Ladin.
10.
Initiate a campaign to bar Iranian President Ahmadinejad's attendance
at Germany's World Cup games in June. Do not lift this prohibition,
no matter what. President A. has dug himself into a hole on this
one. Let him keep digging!
Scott Sullivan
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld
not necessarily
share these views.
ISSUES....
Is an independent
journalist effort from Petroleumworld, on Inside, Confidential
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