ISSUES....
Inside,
confidential, off the record
Ethnic
cleansing
Indications
are that Ahmadi-Nejad is planning three massive campaigns of
border adjustments and ethnic cleansing on a scale that will make
Slobodan
Milosevic look like a petty thief. Ahmadi-Nejad's threats against
Israel
represent only the tip of the iceberg of his plan to create a
new "National
Socialist" Middle East. In most danger following Israel are
Iraq, Saudi
Arabia, the Persian Gulf states, Lebanon, and Azerbaijan.
Iraq, Saudi
Arabia, and the Persian Gulf States
First, Iran
will drive all the Sunnis from Iraq, and use Iraq to consolidate
Iranian control of Lebanon, Syria, and the Persian Gulf. To do
this, Iran
will have to alter Iraq's borders and will probably annex outright
eastern
Iraq including the Basra region that contains 60% of Iraq's proven
oil
reserves.
In order to
partition Iraq, Iran will also encourage Iraqi Kurds, with whom
Tehran already has a political agreement aimed at disenfranchising
the
Sunnis, to drive all the Sunnis from Mosul and Kirkuk. The Kurds
would then
proclaim an independent Kurdistan, with Kirkuk as its capital.
Kirkuk
contains Iraq's largest oil reserves, following Basra. This, the
Sunnis
would be deprived of all substantial income from oil revenue.
Iran's ethnic
cleansing in Iraq would have catastrophic consequences for the
region. For one thing, Iran then would be in a strong position
after
challenging Iraq's borders to challenge Saudi Arabia's borders.
Specifically, Iran/Iraq would then stir up irredentist sentiment
among Saudi
Arabia's large Shia community abutting Iraq, which contains the
bulk of
Saudi oil reserves. Iran could make a power grab for this territory,
which
would touch off another round of ethnic cleansing as the Iraqi-Saudi
border
is adjusted.
For another
ethnic cleansing opportunity, Iran could spur Shia militancy in
the Persian Gulf states like Bahrain. As these states fall into
Iran's
orbit, massive refugee flows of Arabs could ensue.
Israel, Palestine
and Lebanon.
Second, Iran
will drive all the Jews from Israel, along with the secular and
Christian Palestinians, from "Palestine." Ahmadi-Nejad
already openly
boasts of "wiping Israel from the map." His pro-Shia
ethnic cleansing for
Iraq, Israel and Palestine would put severe pressure on the Shia
in Lebanon,
now under Iran/Hezbollah control, to follow suit with their own
copycat
ethnic cleansing campaign.
Iran, Azerbaijan
and Central Asia.
Third, Iran
will then turn on its domestic Azeri community -- some 30
million strong and increasingly pro-Turkey.
Iran's Azeris
want no part of an Iranian empire in the region, which at some
point entails Iranian confrontation with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Iran is
already an ally of Armenia, much to the discomfort of Turkey and
Azerbaijan
who are locked in a bitter dispute with Armenia over the future
of
Nagarno-Karabakh. Iran's Azeris identify more with Turkey and
Azerbaijan
than with Tehran.
Iran will
send large numbers of Azeris to Turkey and Azerbaijan to remove
a
potential threat to the stability of Iran's theocratic regime.
In a recent
provocation, a leading official Iranian newspaper printed a cartoon
depicting Iran's Azeris to Turkic-speaking cockroaches, a provocation
that
led to days of rioting and several deaths in Iran. Remember, whatever
Ahmadinejad does to the Sunnis, Jews, and non-Islamist Palestinians,
he will
do to the Azeris.
To put it
another way, if Ahmadinejad chooses to pursue ethnic racist
national socialist policies abroad, beginning in Iraq, he will
do so at home
as well. Of course Ahmadi-Nejad's entire ethnic cleansing plan
is insane. So
was Hitler's plan, but he went ahead anyway.
ISSUES....
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