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ISSUES....
Inside, confidential and off the recordReality
ENERGY PRICES ARE ERRING BEARISHLY THIS MORNING and did so Friday following the bearishly construed Employment Report. All things being equal… which of course they never are, but economists keep hoping nonetheless… weak economic news from the US will weigh upon energy prices, unless the dollar’s weakness can trump that economic news. Thus far it has note.
However, perhaps the most bearish news is that the rebels in Nigeria’s Delta have all apparently chosen to “come in from the cold” and have accepted the amnesty offered by the Yar’Adua government in Abuja. However, before one’s hopes for peace take flight to readily let us always remember “This is Nigeria we are talking about.” This is a country whose name, properly, should be the Corrupt Republic of Nigeria. This is a nation whose finance minister a decade or more ago fled the country after wiring several hundred million dollars to his and his family’s accounts in Switzerland, the US, the Isle of Man, et al, never to return. This is Nigeria where nothing is ever what it appears to be.
To this end, we are jaundiced enough to suggest that the government’s decision to pay the Delta rebel chieftains $150-$200 apiece for Kalashnikov rifles that can be bought on the black market for $45-$60 a piece has been sufficient to bring these rebel leaders into the amnesty. They will take the money and return to the mangrove groves of the Niger River Delta, keeping nearly all of it for themselves, re-arming and returning the battle in a month, or two or three at most. This is Nigeria, and the Delta River people will never be treated equally with those of western and northern Nigeria where the political power resides.
However, for now peace obtains as Ateke Tom, Farah Dagogo, and the wonderfully name Government Ekpemupolo… and yes, that is really his name….have chosen to turn in their weapons and accept amnesty.
With that decision, Nigeria’s excellent, light sweet crude shall begin flowing again, and perhaps rather swiftly so, with the Yar’Adua government doing what it can to increase production as swiftly as it might. After all, it needs several tens of millions merely to pay high prices for Kalashnikov rifles
- Dennis Gartman/ The Gartman Letter / 10/ 05 / 09
- For more on interesting comments, you can subscribe to The Gartman Letter by contacting Dennis Garthman: Phone - Fax: 757 238 9546 or email : dennis@thegartmanletter
Petroleumworld News 10/05/09
ISSUES.... Inside, confidential and off the record
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