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ISSUES....
Inside, confidential and off the record
Troublesome ME
ON THE POLITICAL FRONT, the situation in Iran is hotting up swiftly, with the government trying very hard to keep quiet the rebellion that is bubbling up from beneath the façade that the world sees. IRNA, the official Iranian news agency, has covered little if anything about the growing rebellion, so we are left to find, read, dissect and understand what it going on there from blogs and the internet. Over the weekend, the official government “police” and the unofficial “Basij” openly attacked protesters in various cities around the country.However, as one would imagine, most of the activities occurred in and around Tehran.
In Tehran, protests took place in three main squares there, and the “Basij” were there with batons and tear gas to try to disperse the protestors. The protestors said they were there to “celebrate” the death of the Islamic martyr, the Imam Hussein, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammed. The Chief of the National Police force, Ismail Ahmadi Moghedam, said late last week that his forces would use “minimum violence” against those celebrating the Ashura, however, it appears that he has failed in keeping his word.
The worst attacks upon protestors took place in the neighborhood near a speech being given by former President Khatamei, who was speaking in the mosque that was the home mosque of Ayatollah Khomeini. Interestingly, many of Khomeini’s family joined the protest movement, which we understand is the reason why the government cancelled a scheduled celebration of Shi’ia mourning ceremonies for the Grand Ayatollah that were to have taken place there.
We hope that some of our Iranian clients will be send us what information they have received from family and friends in Iran, for in the past we’ve found these to be amongst the best sources of information from within Iran. Whatever the case, it is clear that the process of rebellion that began earlier this year as students, workers, dissidents… and most notably, women… took to the streets to protest the election which they considered then and still consider now to be fraudulent continues and indeed is growing.
Moving on, and rather ominously, Iran’s official news agency, IRNA, now claims that the country had successfully tested an upgraded version of its surfaceto-
surface Sejil-2 missile and is apparently capable of carrying nuclear weaponry.
According to the IRNA, following the successful test of the missile “it is
impossible to destroy it by anti-missile rockets.” Further, and all the more disconcerting, is the news that the launch preparation time of the new Sejil-2
missile is manifest less than that of the original model. The new missile has a range of up to 2000 km— sufficient to strike both Israel and US military installations in the Persian Gulf, as well as into parts of southeastern Europe and into Russia.
The testing of this new missile has come only a month after US President Obama made it very clear that Iran has no choice but to assure the world that its nuclear program is peaceful and transparent. Iran has said again and again that it will retaliate if Israel or the United States carries out military strikes against its nuclear facilities. Iran maintains that its nuclear program is intended solely to generate electricity. The US obviously finds that ludicrous and especially so in light of this new missile’s capabilities. Israel has not
ruled out a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran, in turn, has threatened that such an attack would be retaliated against. Interestingly, when
Russian President Medvedev was interviewed on CNN over the weekend and asked what Russia’s response would be should Israel move against Iran’s nuclear facilities he said that Russia would not take sides, suggesting that Israel has a “green light” to proceed should it feel threatened.
The Sejil-2 is a solid-fuel missile and that poses two additional problems. Firstly, solid-fuel missiles are inherently more accurate than are liquid fuel missiles, and they can be fueled in advance and moved or hidden in missile silos scattered about the country. Israel is and will be taking note.
- Dennis Gartman/ The Gartman Letter 12/ 28 / 09
- For more on interesting comments, you can subscribe to The Gartman Letter by contacting Dennis Garthman:
Phone - Fax: or email : dennis@thegartmanletter
ISSUES.... 12/23/09
ISSUES.... Inside, confidential and off the record
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