ISSUES....
Inside,
confidential, off the record
Going
under
Allies
of Chavez and Iran are going under
Lopez Obrador,
Hugo Chavez's protégé in Mexico, is history. Evo
Morales in
Bolivia will soon be history, along with Abdul Aziz al-Hakim in
Iraq, who is
Iran's protégé. The decline of Morales and Hakim
will deal a crippling blow
to Chavez and Ahmadinejad. It is important to note that even though
Morales
and Hakim received strong support from the US as well, they failed.
This week
in Mexico, Lopez Obrador finally stepped back from his slow motion
confrontation with the new Calderon government. In a farewell
speech to his
supporters in Mexico City, Obrador was characteristically vague
about what
it was he intended to accomplish with his efforts to undermine
Mexico's
legitimate authorities.
Let me break
the code. Obrador, in his fantasy life, thought he was another
Evo Morales who could turn Mexico into another Bolivia. In pursuit
of this
fantasy, Obrador made three miscalculations. First, Obrador assumed
that
Mexico was ready for radical action. This was decidedly not the
case, as
evidenced by the decline in support for him as he took his protest
to the
streets.
Second, Obrador
assumed that he was part of a great leftist, anti-US revival
underway throughout Latin America. In reality, the vast majority
of
Mexicans have far more nuanced views of the US. Moreover, most
Mexican
voters do not put relations with the US at the top of the list
of their
concerns.
Third, he
assumed support from Hugo Chavez would carry him to victory.
Instead, Hugo Chavez turned out to be a political albatross, a
liability
that Calderon was quick to exploit during the election. In fact,
in the
view of most analysts, Hugo Chavez cost Obrador the election.
Now, speaking
of Evo Morales, how is he doing? Just like Lopez Obrador, who
once held a commanding lead in Mexico's election, Morales is taking
himself
out of action. One year ago Morales was on top of the world. He
had won
an overwhelming victory in Bolivia's presidential elections. World
energy
prices were surging in the first good news for Bolvia's economy
in years and
greatly increased his bargaining leverage with Brazil and other
importers of
Bolivia's natural gas.
And today?
Today, thanks to his own lust for power and his political
miscalculations, Morales is facing civil war in Bolivia. Bolivia's
four
eastern states, which produce most of Bolivia's gross national
product, want
to break away from La Paz and are doing so in accordance with
Bolivia's
constitution. Instead of negotiations Morales decided on a military
response and has turned, like Obrador, to Hugo Chavez for support.
Morales wants
Chavez to underwrite construction of three large military
bases along the border with Paraguay and Brazil (see today's Washington
Times). Another mistake. This plan will backfire by alienating
Paraguay
and Brazil, not to mention the citizens of eastern Bolivia, who
will now
look to Paraguay and Brazil for support. In short, Morales is
well on the
way to emulating Obrador's path to self-destruction.
And how is
Abdul Aziz al-Hakim doing, the leader in Iraq of the pro-Iran
SCIRI party? Even though Iran's takeover of Iraq was moving along
nicely,
Hakim made a personal play for power that may derail Iran's own
plan. In
brief, Hakim insisted upon parliamentary consideration of his
plan to
separate eastern Iraq from the rest of the country by creating
a mini-state
under his exclusive control. Bad idea. Hakim's plan galvanized
opposition
across the political spectrum, including from tens of thousands
of Iraqi
Shia who would be left behind to face civil war in what remained
of Iraq
(for details, see "Oops, There Goes Basra," New York
Times, 17 September
2006).
Hakim's idiotic
scheme has proved a blessing for the leader of Iraq's
nationalist forces, Muqtada al-Sadr, who strongly favors a centralized
multiethnic state. Moreover, Hakim has given Iran a black eye
just as
Ahmadinejad appears before the UN. Most observers believe Hakim's
plan was
drawn up in Tehran, which would like to annex all or part of Iraq.
In
short, friends of the US out there - stay cool. With opponents
like
Obrador, Morales, and Hakim, how can the US lose? A better question,
how
can Ahmadinejad and Chavez win?
ISSUES....
Is an independent
journalist effort from Petroleumworld, on Inside, Confidential
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