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Inside, confidential and off the record

Oil to $300 ?


As Yogi would say, it’s like déjà vu all over again.

The Evening Standard, June 18, 2008

The oil minister who headed the Saudi Arabian oil
industry from 1962 to1986 and became a household
name during the oil crises of the 1970s, Ahmed Zaki
Yamani, today predicted prices could double to $300 a

Reuters, April 5, 2011

Oil prices could rocket to $200- $300 a barrel if the
world's top crude exporter Saudi Arabia is hit by
serious political unrest, former Saudi oil minister
Sheikh Zaki Yamani told Reuters on Tuesday.

Oil might be headed to $200, $300 or $∞ for that matter.
Why not? After all, $300 Brent crude oil translates into
consumer diesel prices of only around €2.34/L in
Germany and £2.76/L in the U.K. What’s the big deal?

Bear in mind, Yamani’s forecast is predicated on the
conjunction if, as in… if wishes were horses then beggars
would ride.

To this effect if Saudi Arabia is not hit by serious political
unrest, oil prices on the NYMEX could rocket to $89.77 -
$87.88 (which is the February 18th/22nd gap).

Nevertheless, be prepared, now that Yamani has once
again given the all-clear signal, sky-is-the-limit price
forecasts from Wall Street’s (alleged) best-and-brightest
shall be forthcoming.

In the meantime, the bull’s goto-scapegoat, China,
appears unwilling at the moment to indulge Wall Street’s
wildest fantasies. On Tuesday the People’s Bank of China
unexpectedly raised interest rates. The one-year lending
rate goes up by 25 bps to 6.31% as of today.

This is the fourth interest rate hike since October that is
meant to collar inflation. So far it has not worked.
However, when it finally does (see today’s Chart of the
Day) it will likely have a deleterious impact on oil prices.


- Stephen Schork / The Schork Report / 04/06/ 2011

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