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Last word on US elections



Here the final word from Dennis Garthman on the US mid term elections.

Tomorrow is the election, and although the pundits everywhere are calling for an absolute certain "take-over" of the House by the Democrats and a near take-over of the Senate, we think they are right only in the latter. We are certain that the Republicans will lost seats in both houses of Congress, and we shall grant that as a given; however, we continue to believe that the strong tendency toward incumbency is so strong and the voters' collective "like" for their own House member while they intensely "dis-like" the national Republicans will serve the Republicans well when voting push comes to shove.

The Senate seat in Tennessee now seems almost certainly to go to Mr. Corker, as Mr. Ford's rush in the polls has failed miserably. Two weeks ago Mr. Ford (the Democrat) had a 1% lead over Mr. Corker (the Republican) and that has faltered now to the point where he is 10-12 "points" behind. That does not bode well for the Democrats nationally. Too, Sen. Allen here in the Commonwealth of Virginia has pulled back to even with Mr. Webb, after having been 5-7 "points" behind two weeks ago. Finally, in Missouri, Sen. Tallent is now back to even or 1% behind Ms. McCaskill, having been 3-5 "points" behind two weeks ago. The election will be interesting. We shall watch with great interest; so too shall the world.

For more on interesting comments, you can subscribe to The Gartman Letter by contacting Dennis Garthman: Phone 757 238 9346, Fax 757 238 9346 or dennis@thegartmanletter.com

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