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ISSUES....
Inside, confidential and off the record

 

"Events" and french elections


“Events” have over-taken economics and it would seem almost certain
that Ms. Le Pen and Ms. Macro shall make it into the 2nd round of voting.

 

As the week comes to an end and as all attention is focused today upon France and the impending election there this weekend. This is especially so in light of the Islamist terrorist attack upon two French policemen yesterday even as the major candidates were debating on French national television as the campaigns have effectively come to an end.

As we discuss in our political commentary below, the political beneficiary of the attack that took place on the Champs Elysees last evening shall be Ms. Le Pen, who has been openly antagonistic toward immigrants into France for years and has remained consistent in that regard.

The loser shall be Mr. Melenchon, who is the most openly far-left-ofcenter of the four leading candidates and whose positions in the matters regarding immigration et al have been the most “liberal.”

It was Benjamin Disraeli, we believe, who, when asked what it is that determines one's political future said, “Events, my friend, events.” It really matters not who said this nor precisely what was said, but it is a simple fact that events such as the attack in Paris are never forecastable.

No one knows when an “Event” of some very real consequence shall happen that shall change the very dynamics of politics and economics. Going into last night's debate and into the events on the streets of Paris, Mr. Melenchon's campaign was on a roll. His support ratings were rising while those of the other three major candidates were at best holding steady and in some cases… Ms. Le Pen's for example…were actually falling.

Now, however “Events” have over-taken economics and it would seem almost certain that Ms. Le Pen and Ms. Macro shall make it into the 2nd round of voting.

The feared Le Pen vs. Melenchon 2nd round campaign has been put to rest.


Dennis Gartman / The Gartman Letter / April 21, 2017

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ISSUES.... 04/24/ 2017 - Send Us Your Issues

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