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ISSUES....
Inside, confidential and off the record

 

 

OPEC's 78% compliance rate


78% compliance rate was very bearish news…
and it was taken very well by the market!

 

Interestingly, the news yesterday was as bearish as it was bullish the day previous, for having learned two days ago that crude and product inventories fell 9.2 million barrels sending energy prices sharply higher, and having learned from OPEC that compliance with the quotas in effect had risen to 97%, yesterday we learned that the IEA believes that compliance actually fell sharply in June to 78%. As the IEA said in its monthly report,

Each month something seems to come along to raise doubts about the pace of the rebalancing process. This month, there are two hitches: a dramatic recovery in oil production from Libya and Nigeria and a lower rate of compliance by OPEC with its own output agreement… [and] for fellow OPEC members, who agreed to reduce production by 1.2 million bpd, to see their cut effectively diluted by nearly two-thirds must be very frustrating, especially as their pact has, hitherto, been well observed by historical standards 4

The IEA did mitigate that bearish news somewhat when it said that it believes demand for OPEC crude will rise to 33.6 million bpd by the end of this year, referring to the potential for a “hefty” draw upon global inventories “even if Libya and Nigeria recover further.” But in the end, the 78% compliance rate was very bearish news… and it was taken very well by the market!


Dennis Gartman / The Gartman Letter / June 14 , 2017



 

ISSUES.... 07/17/ 2017 - Send Us Your Issues

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