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Pedro M. Burelli: Comments on Senator Lugar's report "Changing Cuba Policy - In United States Interest"

Latin America is hardly a priority for a new administration facing the very real prospect of an outright collapse of the US economy the rest of the world in tow. Proof of this is that not a single new official has been designated to cover the region at the all important NSC (budgetary constraints to blame), or at the State Department, were the key incumbents were asked to stay put until after April's Summit of the Americas.

All the same, the region, its potential greatly thwarted by the global recession, still requires serious attention and action from Washington. Mexico has turned into one of the most serious - and certainly it's most proximate - foreign crisis. An all out war against drug traffickers has highlighted both the resolve of President Calderon and a smallish group of top aides, and the fragility and duplicity of most of rest of the state apparatus. Add to this the bang of a severe economic meltdown, and no fence ¡V however high or wide - will protect the US from the spillover.

US policy towards Cuba, a perennial, became a recurrent campaign issue for the winning ticket. Explicit promises were made to overhaul what many consider an ineffectual approach, but no one has been tapped to spearhead this overdue rework. This personnel and policy vacuum will be challenged tomorrow when influential US Senator, Richard G. Lugar (R-IND) said to have been President Obama's first choice for Secretary of State - releases a far-reaching report to his colleagues in the Committee on Foreign Relations titled: Changing Cuba Policy In The United States National Interest

The report goes well beyond the usual staff report of a foreign trip. Carl Meacham, the Senator's highly regarded point man for the region, moves fast through his impressions from a recent trip to Cuba and presents a set of far reaching recommendations that are sensible, comprehensive and relatively simple to implement in their first phase. He provides the administration, and the legislative branch, with an unusually detailed roadmap for dramatic policy remaking.

The key differentiator of this commendable exercise in US-Latin-realism is that it proposes mayor initiatives not from the perspective of the teary-eyed leftist camp, but from dead center where the sins of the Castro regime can be mentioned in exactly the same paragraph, or page, as remedial measures to spare the US further damage to its own credibility and objectives in the region, and beyond.

What the Lugar (Meacham) approach suggests is " replacing conditionality with sequenced engagement, beginning with narrow areas of consensus that develop trust. A steady series of gradual measures has significant confidence-building potential and could ultimately create the conditions for effective dialogue over more contentious issues. By sequencing this process of engagement with Cuba, the USG would have the opportunity to continually reassess progress towards the advancement of national interests. In other words, a pragmatic, phased approach would allow the USG to halt the engagement process at any point if U.S. interests were no longer being served. "

The report, dated February 23 rd , has circulated this weekend on the internet in the form of a printer's proof . Sources in the Senate confirm that this is indeed the final version (with minor typographical corrections) of the report to be made public tomorrow. The table of contents, some notable quotes, the title of the recommendations and the full conclusion, are found below.

I recommend the careful reading of the full document
in the belief that if the US gets this right it could well start a new era of constructive engagement within the region. In his refreshingly frank referral letter to his colleagues, Senator Lugar states as many of us have for some time - that the historical US approach " may have been used as a foil by the regime to demand further sacrifices from Cuba's impoverished population ". The same applies in turn to the relation of the US with the hemisphere where many have used the embargo as an excuse to truncate much that could have been achieved to the benefit of the millions in the region. This report represents an excellent starting point for the dismantling of myths, lies and excuses concocted from on both sides of this now mummified relic of the Cold War.

PMB

CHANGING CUBA POLICY IN UNITES STATES INTEREST - Report

LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL

" Economic sanctions are a legitimate tool of U.S. foreign policy, and they have sometimes achieved their aims, as in the case of apartheid South Africa. After 47 years, however, the unilateral embargo on Cuba has failed to achieve its stated purpose of "bringing democracy to the Cuban people", while it may have been used as a foil by the regime to demand further sacrifices from Cuba's impoverished population. The current U.S. policy has many passionate defenders, and their criticism of the Castro regime is justified. Nevertheless, we must recognize the ineffectiveness of our current policy and deal with the Cuban regime in a way that enhances U.S. interests.

Mr. Meacham's report provides significant insight and a number of important recommendations to advance U.S. interests with Cuba. I hope you find the report helpful. We look forward to working with you on these issues and welcome any comments you may have on this report ."

RICHARD G. LUGAR, Ranking Member

INTRODUCTION

FINDINGS

- The Cuban regime is institutionalized

- Positive developments are occurring in Cuba but they should not be mistaken for structural reform

- Popular dissatisfaction with Cuba's economic situation is the regime's vulnerability

- The regime appears to be open to some bilateral dialogue and cooperation

RECOMMENDATONS

- The resumption of bilateral talks on drug interdiction and migration

- Investments in alternative energy

- Agricultural trade

- Medical trade

- Bipartisan commission and a multilateral framework

" the Government of Cuba would be required to sign the Inter-American Democratic Charter in order to be considered a full member "

CONCLUSION
(full text reproduced below)

"Cuba is important for the United States because of proximity, intertwined history, and culture. Cuba is important in Latin America because it is a romanticized symbol of a small country that stood up to the most powerful country in the world. The Cuban Revolution legitimizes some of the passions that fuel the outrage that many Latin Americans feel regarding the inequality of their own societies, and for 50 years, rightly or wrongly, Cuba has ably portrayed itself as having fought this fight for them, as well as for the downtrodden around the world.

During the visit, a Cuban official stated to staff that "U.S. foreign policy towards Latin America goes through Cuba." With the end of the Cold War, however, the GOC does not represent the security threat to the U.S. that it once did. The USG still has significant grievances with the GOC¡Xmostly, its human rights practices and the stifling of political pluralism and property rights as well as the lack of adequate compensation for expropriated assets of U.S. The remaining security issues, on the other hand, are limited to the potential for a migration crisis provoked by political or economic instability on the island. firms and individuals.

While Cuba's alliance with Venezuela has intentions of influencing regional affairs, the GOC has not been positioned to ably export its Revolution since the collapse of the Soviet Union forced an end to Cuba's financial support for Latin American guerrilla movements. The GOC's program of medical diplomacy, which exports doctors to developing countries, bolsters the island's soft power, but does not represent a significant threat to U.S. national security. Given current economic challenges, any revenue gained from economic engagement with the United States would likely be used for internal economic priorities, not international activism.

For these reasons, the United States' relationships with Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, and Chile, have taken priority in Latin America. Cuba, too, has demonstrated that relations with the United States, though advantageous, are not necessary to its survival, having forged closer relationships around the globe. Venezuela, China, and Canada are Cuba's top three trading partners, and recent economic agreements with Brazil and Russia are examples of Cuba's resourcefulness in this regard. As one GOC official told staff, "We've endured much harsher conditions during the Special Period. We can survive with or without the United States."

In hindsight, the U.S. embargo has not served a national security agenda since Cuba ceased to be an effective threat to the security of the United States. In the immediate post-Cold War era, the cost of maintaining this policy was negligible in comparison to the domestic political benefit derived from satisfying Cuban-American groups in the United States. The USG justified the embargo policy as an incentive or inducement for negotiations with the Cuban government, the rationale being that the U.S. would lift the embargo, or parts of it, in response to reform on human rights and democracy. This narrow approach, however, has not furthered progress in human rights or democracy in Cuba and has come at the expense of other direct and regional strategic U.S. interests.

Today it is clear that a reform of our policy would serve U.S. security and economic interests in managing migration effectively and combating the illegal drug trade, among other interests. By seizing the initiative at the beginning of a new U.S. Administration and at an important moment in Cuban history, the USG would relinquish a conditional posture that has made any policy changes contingent on Havana, not Washington.

Reform of U.S.-Cuban relations would also benefit our regional relations. Certain Latin American leaders, whose political appeal depends on the propagation of an array of anti-Washington grievances, would lose momentum as a centerpiece of these grievances is removed. More significantly, Latin Americans would view U.S. engagement with Cuba as a demonstration that the United States understands their perspectives on the history of U.S. policy in the region and no longer insists that all of Latin America must share U.S. hostility to the 50-year-old regime. The resulting improvement to the United States' image in the region would facilitate the advancement of U.S. interests.

If reform in U.S.-Cuba policy were to occur in the direction of sequenced engagement, the impact on the region would be swift and to the benefit of the security and prosperity of the United States. In due order, we must correct the failures of our current policy in a way that enhances U.S. interests.

Finally, current U.S. policy ignores recent developments that have the potential to redefine relations with Cuba. The sanctions-based policy has significantly impeded the United States' ability to influence the direction of policy in Cuba By directing policy towards an unlikely scenario of a short-term democratic transition on the island and rejecting most tools of diplomatic engagement, the U.S. is left as a powerless bystander, watching events unfold at a distance. or gain a broader understanding of events taking place on the island.

Pedro M. Burelli is a financial consultant, a former member of PDVSA board of director and ex head of JPMorgan Capital Corporation – Latin America. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these view.

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Petroleumworld News 02/23/09

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