PW Español




PW Live



Very usefull links



PW
Bookstore





Institutional
links


OPEC







PW
Business Partners

 


IRAQ OIL THE FORUM

 


Blogspots

The Global Barrel

Tiempo Cultural

Gustavo Coronel

Iran Watch.org

Le Blog des
Energies Nouvelles

News Links

AP

AFP

Aljazeera

Dow Jones

Reuters


Bloomberg

Views and News
from Norway

 

 


Lagniappe

 

 

William Pesek : Cheap oil
is rich opportunity for Asia

 

 

For China and India, 2015 should be a pivotal year. Both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have for months been making grand pronouncements about structural change, while moving only timidly to fulfill them. With oil dropping below $50 a barrel, some of the urgency to implement those painful reforms is sure to fade away. So too, however, will the excuses for not acting.

Across Asia, the lowest crude prices since 2009 are an almost unmitigated boon. Already, they've given Indonesia  and Malaysia room to curb budget-busting fuel subsidies (although Malaysia, an energy exporter, will suffer from a drop in oil revenues). In Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand, sliding energy costs stand to boost disposable incomes, household demand and corporate profits. Economist  Glenn Maguire  at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group thinks this "confidence multiplier" will lead to higher-than-expected growth. The drop in oil prices so far could add as much as 1 percentage point to global output. "We think this will be the defining, constructive dynamic that underpins Asian growth in 2015 and most probably 2016," Maguire says.

As India's Modi prepares to unveil his first full budget in February, he could hardly ask for a fairer tailwind. In the short run, says Peter Redward, principal at Redward Associates, oil trends will lead to a "massive improvement" in India's current account deficit, repair the government's balance sheet and restrain inflation, which should allow the central bank to cut rates.

Whether the pickup in growth can be sustained will depend on how bold Modi chooses to be next year. The Indian prime minister wisely slashed diesel  subsidies  when oil prices dropped, easing the hit consumers felt at the pump. But that was the easy part; it'll be tougher to cut subsidies on liquefied petroleum gas and kerosene, which millions of Indians use for cooking. Together with diesel, subsidies for those two fuels cost the government $11 billion in the last fiscal year. Likewise, Modi will have to spend considerable political capital to abandon discounts on fertilizer. Without such cuts, it'll be difficult to free up space for more productive fiscal spending on infrastructure, education and health care. 

Nor can Modi afford to delay supply-side reforms. In addition to lower fuel bills, 2015 will feature a light election  calendar : Only two of India's 29 states will hold contests. This could well be the prime minister's best chance to push through politically difficult measures, such as allowing foreigners to hold majority stakes in key domestic sectors.

For its part, despite lower energy bills, China is worried about faltering growth: That's at least part of the reason why the government just accelerated 300 new infrastructure  projects  worth more than $1.1 trillion. Still, like Modi, Xi would be wise to avoid short-term thinking. Falling oil prices risk derailing momentum in both countries to reduce their carbon footprints. Cheaper oil "should not be an excuse to slow or stall alternative-energy and energy-efficiency policies," Maguire says. "Medium-to-longer term demographic and population pressures will still require Asia to de-carbonize growth and forge radical new paths in energy efficiency over the longer term."

As  Rajiv Biswas  of IHS Global Insight points out, lower oil costs should make it easier for China's central bank to cut interest rates and offer relief for hard-pressed borrowers. Xi needs to exploit those relaxed monetary conditions to rein in state-owned enterprises as he's promised to do. Only by shifting the economy away from inefficient smokestack industries, and unleashing the animal spirits in China's more productive private sector, will Xi be able to set the economy on a truly sustainable growth path.

China already counts as a "grand winner," says Kenneth Courtis, former Asia vice chairman at Goldman Sachs, as a shrinking fuel bill has allowed the country to build up its strategic energy reserves. But cheaper oil on its own won't eliminate the structural challenges facing Asia's biggest economy. Both Xi and Modi have been presented with an opportunity only; the burden remains on them to grasp it.

William Pesek is a Bloomberg View columnist based in Tokyo and writes on economics, markets and politics throughout the Asia-Pacific region. His journalism awards include the 2010 Society of American Business Editors and Writers prize for commentary. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.

Editor's Note: This editorial was originally published by Bloomberg View , on Jan 6, 2015. Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest of our readers.

Follow us in : twitter / Facebook

All comments posted and published on Petroleumworld, do not reflect either for or against the opinion expressed in the comment as an endorsement of Petroleumworld. All comments expressed are private comments and do not necessary reflect the view of this website.

All comments are posted and published without liability to Petroleumworld. Use Notice: This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of issues of environmental and humanitarian significance. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107.

For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml.

All works published by Petroleumworld are in accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

Petroleumworld has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is Petroleumworld endorsed or sponsored by the originator. Petroleumworld encourages persons to reproduce, reprint, or broadcast Petroleumworld articles provided that any such reproduction identify the original source, http://www.petroleumworld.com or else and it is done within the fair use as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law.

If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.

Internet web links to http://www.petroleumworld.com are appreciated

Petroleumworld News 01/09/2015

Follow us in : twitter / Facebook


Send this story to a friend

 

Copyright© 1999-2009 Petroleumworld or respective author or news agency. All rights reserved.

We welcome the use of Petroleumworld™ stories by anyone provided it mentions Petroleumworld.com as the source. Other stories you have to get authorization by its authors.Internet web links to http://www.petroleumworld.com are appreciated

Petroleumworld welcomes your feedback and comments,
share your thoughts on this article, your feed. back is important to us!

We invite all our readers to share with us
their views and comments about this article.

Write to editor@petroleumworld.com

By using this link, you agree to allow PW
to publish your comments on our letters page.

Any question or suggestions,
please write to: editor@petroleumworld.com

Best Viewed with IE 5.01+ Windows NT 4.0, '95,
'98,ME,XP, Vista, Windows 7,8 +/ 800x600 pixels


 


Pan American Mature
Fields Congress,
Jan 20 - 22, 2015


Port Spain, Trinidad
January 26th and 27th 2015




Mexico Gas Congress
February 24-26, 2015

 

 






WGC Paris, June, 2015
ow.ly/ziUh0

TOP

Editor & Publisher:Elio Ohep F./Contact Email: editor@petroleumworld.com

Contact:
editor@petroleumworld.com/ phone: Office (58 212) 635 7252,
or Cel (58 412) 996 3730 / (58 414) 276 3041 / (58  412) 952 5301


CopyRight © 1999-2010, Elio Ohep F.- All Rights Reserved. Legal Information

- CCS Office Tele
phone/Teléfonos Oficina: (58 212) 635 7252

PW in Top 100 Energy Sites


Technorati Profile


CopyRight © 1999-2010, Elio Ohep F. - All Rights Reserved.
This material may not be published, broadcast, posted online, rewritten or redistributed by any type of means, except with permission of the author/s

The information in this web site is proprietary and is protected under United States and International Copyright and Trademark laws. No part of this web site may be reproduced or transmitted in any form by any means whatsoever, except with permission of the author/s..

Petroleumworld encourages persons to reproduce, reprint, or broadcast Petroleumworld articles provided that any such reproduction identify the original source, http://www.petroleumworld.com or else and it is done within the fair use as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond
'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.
Any use of this site or its material, in any form, without the express prior written consent of the author, is prohibited by law and is subject to legal action. Legal Information

Top 100+

Technorati Profile
Fair use notice of copyrighted material:

This site is a public free site and it contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner.We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of business, environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have chosen to view the included information for research, information, and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from Petroleumworld or the copyright owner of the material.