Bush to Tehran?
----- Original Message -----
From: david sheegog
To: editor@petroleumworld.com
Sent: Monday, January 08, 2007 1:25 AM
Subject: "bush to tehran?
I
recognize a kind of cynical irony in your editorial "Bush
to visit Iran?", some of the excellent analysis notwithstanding.
That said, this op-ed corresponds very closely with an opinion
I expressed in a letter to Asia Times last summer. I thought that
Bush would not let the elections get too close before he made
his Nixonian move to "open" Iran to some kind of strategic
cooperation with the US. I was wrong. And I no longer have a strong
notion that Bush will do anything like open cooperation with the
Islamic Republic. Even after the Baker-Hamilton commission gave
him another chance to seek some kind of rapproachment with Iran
and Syria, he turned away from it. Although, as you point out,
Bush is doing the Iranians a favor by attacking Sunni and Sadr
forces in Baghdad.
I don't understand why you believe Iran can afford to wish for,
much less work for, a partition of Iraq. The neighborhood could
ignite if all the neighbors believe Iran became directly involved
(military personnel) with the Shiite militias in ethnic cleansing
of Sunnis. If the cleansing that seems to be going on continues,
the neighborhoood may ignite anyway. And Iran is not without risk
that they could come under attack from regional powers if they
are deemed responsible for contributing to the destabilization
of Iraq for which the US is now blamed. I do believe there is
strong sentiment among many Iraqi Shiites, both on the street
and in powerful positions, to exact a terrible killing revenge
on Sunnis. Its even possible that Iran believes such an ethnic
cleansing is necessary for Shiites to cement their hold on Iraq,
but without Iranian fingerprints on it. If a complete subjugation
of Sunnis were achieved, Iran would not seem to desire partition.
Nor would they need to take over the southern oil fields - they
could simply develop joint operating agreements with the Iraqis.
Make loans. Or do nothing but be a supportive neighbor.
Also, my best regards to Oliver Campbell, and thanks for his summary
of the 2004 PDVSA SEC filing.
David Sheegog
Paoli, OK
USA
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