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''The E.P.R. Targets Mexico's Energy Industry''

By The Power and Interest News Report (PINR)

The Ejército Popular Revolucionario (Popular Revolutionary Army, E.P.R.) has made its presence felt across Mexico in recent months, particularly in the wake of the recent September 10 attacks on a number of oil and gas pipelines in Mexico's southern states of Veracruz and Tlaxcala. This has created yet another security-related problem for President Felipe Calderon.

Background to the E.P.R.

Not much is known about the E.P.R., but what is known of the organization, its origins and past operations suggest that it is a group whose capabilities should not be underestimated. The rebel group emerged in Guerrero State in June 1996 during a ceremony that marked the first anniversary of the "Massacre of Aguas Blancas," namely the murder of 17 peasants carried out by members of the state judicial police.

According to a report by the Latin American TV station Univision, the E.P.R. was created through the union of 14 armed guerrilla movements, including the Partido de los Pobres (P.D.L.P.) and the Partido Revolucionario Obrero Clandestino Unión del Pueblo (P.R.O.C.U.P.).The Univision report, as well as an interview with a former E.P.R. member by Mexico's daily La Jornada, defines the E.P.R. as the heir to the Mexican guerrilla movements of the 1970s. The group defines itself as having a Marxist ideology and has its bases in the country's southern states of Guerrero, Chiapas and Oaxaca.

According to a website that allegedly belongs to the E.P.R., the full name of the organization is: Partido Democrático Popular Revolucionario-Ejército Popular Revolucionario (Popular Revolutionary Democratic Party). The group's objectives include: the takeover of political power; the formation of a government of the proletariat; and the construction of socialism in Mexico.

The organization's website includes the E.P.R.'s flag and images of Mexican guerrillas such as Emiliano Zapata. These images hearken to the group's Marxist ideology, or at least the appearance of such an ideology. Reproducing images of national heroes such as Zapata or Pancho Villa is a way of giving some credibility to the E.P.R., as they are, in a way, following the "noble" revolutionary causes of past Mexican heroes.

The E.P.R.'s website includes essays critiquing Mexican political parties such as the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (P.R.I.), which ruled the country for 70 years, and the Partido de Acción Nacional of former President Vicente Fox.

Mexican Attorney General Eduardo Medina has described the E.P.R. as "a relatively small group, but certainly with a violent attitude." The E.P.R. claims that it is waging a "prolonged people's war" against the government, but there is speculation that the group has been weakened by internal divisions, including the creation of splinter groups, which probably have contributed to its relative inactivity in recent years. Nevertheless, the E.P.R.'s ability to attack pipelines demonstrates the changing nature of the threat.

Violent Attacks in the 1990s

When it made its first appearance in 1996, the E.P.R. launched a series of attacks against Mexican police and army barracks in six different states. These attacks resulted in the deaths of between 14 to 16 people and another 22 wounded. An article by the EmergencyNet News Service published after the 1996 attacks explained that "witnesses in the town of Tixtla described 30 gunmen with their faces covered with bandannas and wearing khaki uniforms. The attackers moved through the town's main square in combat formation and proceeded to open fire on the police. ... In another southern Mexico town, Huatulco, located in the state of Oaxaca, the rebels attacked a police station, a naval base, the town hall and one other public building. Seven people were killed and seven others were wounded in the attacks." It was believed that around 200 rebels took part in the attacks. At the time, then-assistant Attorney General Jose Luis Ramos maintained that the E.P.R. did not jeopardize the country's stability because "it is such a small armed group of criminals that in no way can it present a risk of destabilization."

A June 1998 article by Inter Press Service (I.P.S.) explained that the E.P.R. lacked a leader like the Zapatista Army of National Liberation's charismatic Subcomandante Marcos, "which made it harder to locate and actually increased the group's chances of survival." The E.P.R. was dealt a significant blow in 1999, when an E.P.R. commander known as "Commander Z" or "Commander Zacarias" was detained and accused of heading the August 1996 E.P.R. attack in La Crucecita, in the Oaxaca municipality of Huatulco. Nevertheless, almost a decade after the aforementioned I.P.S. article was published, the E.P.R. lives on.

Bombings Today

The Mexican government has declared that the E.P.R. was responsible for a number of attacks against the P.R.I.'s headquarters in Mexico City in November 2006. In July 2007, there were a number of blasts targeting gas infrastructure belonging to Mexico's state oil company, Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). The E.P.R.'s July bombs went off in Guanajuato and Querétaro, in central Mexico.

The September 10 attacks on the oil and gas pipelines caused four major fires as the gas exploded. Pemex reports that bombs blew up oil and gas pipelines at six sites. Media reports say that at least one unexploded bomb was also found near a motorway toll booth close to where another bomb had exploded. The pipeline explosions closed the main motorway from Mexico City to Veracruz and the Cactus-San Fernando gas pipeline. The attacks affected 11 of the country's 32 states, as well as Mexico City.

The explosions prompted the authorities to evacuate 21,000 people in Veracruz and forced businesses to shut down across the country's central industrial belt that stretches from Mexico City to Guadalajara. Citizens of the towns of La Antigua, Omealca, Minatitlan and Actopan in Veracruz and the Las Delicias area in Tlaxcala were temporarily sheltered in emergency hotels. No casualties were reported from the explosions. Among the thousands of businesses affected were major multinational companies such as Grupo Modelo, the makers of Corona beer, and Vitro, Mexico's largest glassmaker.

Bombs in Response to Alleged Detainments

The governor of Veracruz, Fidel Herrera, confirmed that there was an E.P.R. slogan painted on the wall of a motorway toll booth where another bomb was discovered. The slogan read: "they took them alive, we want them back alive." This is a reference to two E.P.R. members, Raymundo Rivera Bravo and Edmundo Reyes Amaya, whom the E.P.R. claims were arrested at the end of May in Oaxaca during protests that occurred in that city.

The government denies it arrested the two and has repeatedly said that it has no knowledge of the whereabouts of either E.P.R. member. Attorney General Eduardo Medina argues that the pair may have been victim to internal divisions inside the movement. "It is possible that these people are being held by members within the same organization, or by similar groups," Medina explained.

Facts, Theories and Intelligence

The recent pipeline bombings have attracted much attention to the exact nature of the E.P.R., and whether the Mexican government and security forces are prepared to deal with the threat. A September 20 Los Angeles Times article explains that "the EPR is an 'army' probably consisting of fewer than 100 people, including several members of five extended families with roots in Oaxaca."

The level of organization required to carry out this year's bombings points to a group which is better prepared than some common criminals wearing ski masks and carrying assault rifles. As far back as 1998, there was speculation among Mexican intelligence that the E.P.R. was well-equipped and even possessed light artillery and anti-aircraft guns. After the attacks, theories ran wild accusing different foreign individuals, such as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, as being the masterminds behind the scenes. Other rumors point to potential ties between the E.P.R. and Mexican drug cartels.

Furthermore, the Mexican intelligence system has come under criticism for its inability to prevent the attacks from occurring in the first place. According to some theories, in order to carry out such coordinated attacks, the E.P.R. had to have information from within Pemex to place bombs in the precise locations where interrupted gas supplies could cause the most economic damage. The September assaults damaged critical shear valves, which control the flow of natural gas, oil or liquefied petroleum gas.

The Future Threat of the E.P.R.

The international media, in general, has played down the September attacks themselves, instead focusing on the attack's repercussions on Mexican oil and gas exports and how the explosions affected the country's economy and industries.

An article by Global Insight explained "despite the emergence of this new 'threat' and the concerns of the markets, security risks to the energy sector in Mexico are not as high as in Colombia, which saw a record 170 attacks by rebel groups on the Cano Limon pipeline in 2001." A Knight Ridder article stated that "oil traders are watching developments in Mexico closely because the country's proximity to the U.S. market makes it uniquely important."

It is important not to underestimate the E.P.R.'s attacks, even though the group's activities so far have proven somewhat sporadic. Certainly, the E.P.R. has proven to be resourceful and enduring.

While the E.P.R. does not pose a direct threat to the Mexican government, they do have the capacity to inflict serious damage on the country's infrastructure and economy. It is likely that it is only a matter of time before the E.P.R. strikes again, showing that the Calderon administration has one more domestic security threat with which to deal.

Report Drafted By: W. Alejandro Sanchez, the Power and Interest News Report (PINR). All comments should be directed to comments@pinr.com. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.

Editor's note: This commentary was originally published by PINR, an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations( www.pinr.com), on 10/02/2007. Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest of our readers.

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