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Colombia politics: Closer to a third term

AP /Fernando Vergara

Colombia's acting Defense Minister Gen. Freddy Padilla, left, talks to Colombia's
President Alvaro Uribe during a military ceremony in Bogota, Wednesday, June 3, 2009.

By The Economist Intelligence Unit

Colombia's president, Álvaro Uribe, has still not confirmed whether he will seek a third term in May 2010 elections. Yet it increasingly appears that he will do so, and the Senate in May approved a bill to put the question to a national referendum. Though a referendum vote to allow a third consecutive term (the current constitution permits just two) must also be approved by a special legislative committee and the Constitutional Court, the prospect has unified most member parties of the governing coalition and has raised expectations that the president will indeed run—and win. But this might not be the best outcome for the country.

On April 15th a Senate committee approved the referendum bill and changed the wording potentially to allow Mr Uribe to run again in May 2010 rather than 2014 (as was the implication in the bill's original version). The Senate, where the government has a majority, approved it on May 19th. The earlier version had already been okayed by the lower house of Congress. The special committee will now reconcile the two versions.

Securing approval from the conciliation committee could be a problem as Germán Vargas Lleras, leader of the uribista Cambio Radical (CR) party and a potential candidate who opposes a third presidential term, has influence over the committee. So the president's supporters have a possible contingency plan: to present a new constitutional reform bill that would not go to a referendum. This bill would need to be approved by the lower house before the session ends on June 20th and by the Senate by December before going to the Constitutional Court in early 2010. (As by law Mr Uribe must announce any plans to run by November, this option would require additional legal changes.)

Inching towards re-election

On May 7th, Congress approved other legislation that was modified to facilitate Mr Uribe's re-election. The political reform bill was originally intended to penalise parties whose members are linked to irregular armed groups. Although the practice of allowing the substitution of legislators found guilty of links to irregular armed groups will be outlawed, it will not be applied retroactively, so the numerous uribista legislators implicated in the "parapolitics" scandal (involving the revelation, in 2006, of links between congressmen and the now demobilised paramilitary groups) will not lose their congressional seats.

The bill also allows legislators to change political parties in the next six months, which paves the way for uribista legislators to be grouped into a single party. This could weaken presidential hopefuls such as Mr Vargas Lleras. The political reform also contains a clause that states that the electoral authorities must uphold what is in the public interest. The authorities are currently investigating alleged financing irregularities relating to the collection of the five million signatures required to call a referendum. This clause would mean that even if irregularities are found, the authorities could still allow the referendum to go ahead.

High popularity

Mr Uribe retains a very high level of popular approval, and therefore stands a good chance of winning re-election should he run. According to a Gallup poll taken in May, his popularity is at 68%, even though there is growing discontent with the state of the economy. Disapproval for his handling of the economy rose to 69% in May, compared with 57% in March 2008. There is clear support for him to be allowed to run for a third-term (61% in favour). Only 38% currently say they would vote for him, but this reflects the fact that the president has not yet clarified his intentions.

If Mr Uribe does not stand, the strongest candidates currently are Juan Manuel Santos (with 13% of voting intentions), who on May 18th resigned as defence minister in order to be eligible to pursue the presidency (he will do so only if Mr Uribe decides not to); Noemí Sanín, a former presidential candidate (in 2002) and current ambassador to the UK (with 12%); and the former minister of agriculture, Andrés Felipe Arias (10.5%). All are Mr Uribe's allies. Mr Santos's profile has been raised by military successes against Colombia 's largest guerrilla group, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), including the dramatic rescue of several hostages in 2008.

Although the 2010 elections are some way off, Mr Uribe's electoral chances, or those of another centre-right candidate should he not stand, are further boosted by the fact that opposition parties on the left of the political spectrum are weak and divided. Sergio Fajardo (10.4%), an independent and former mayor of Medellín, is currently well positioned to attract some of those Colombians who do not intend to vote for Mr Uribe. However, the Partido Liberal (PL) and Polo Democrático Alternativo (PDA) are deeply fractured and will struggle to run effective campaigns.

Should he or shouldn't he?

However, just because Mr Uribe stands a solid chance to winning re-election for an unprecedented third term doesn't mean he should seek to do so. There are growing concerns about what a third presidential term would mean for Colombia 's democracy and its institutions, and hence, Mr Uribe's legacy.

The president's popularity is largely attributable to his strong leadership and his “democratic security” policy, which has made major gains in combating Marxist insurgent groups, drug traffickers and violent crime, and demobilising right-wing paramilitary groups. When he took office in 2002 the constitution limited a president to a single four-year term. Given Mr Uribe's strong performance, voters approved a constitutional change to allow his re-election in 2006. However, another constitutional reform could well weaken, rather than strengthen Colombia 's institutions, and Mr Uribe's desire to perpetuate himself in office could be interpreted as being driven by personalistic and autocratic motivations. A third term would concentrate too much power in the presidency, and would erode the checks and balances and separation of powers provided in the constitution.

Nor have Mr Uribe's two terms been free of problems and scandal. Besides the “parapolitics” cases, there have been allegations and investigations of abuse of civilians by the security forces, the killing of trade unionists, illegal spying by the intelligence services, and other similar charges.

For critics of Mr Uribe and opponents of a third term—both within and outside the Uribe camp—such concerns will not be alleviated by another four years of Uribe rule. There are other strong contenders, they say, and the president would do more for his country by stepping aside than by staying put.

The Economist Views Wire is a news blog of The Economist Intelligence Unit, is a seccion of the Economist Magazine a a leading business and politics magazine. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.

Editor's Note: This commentary was originally published by ViewsWire , on May 27, 2009 . Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest of our readers.

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