Petroleumworld`s
Opinion Forum:
viewpoints on issues in energy & international
politics.
Saturday's
Lagniappe
The
Oil Depletion Protocol
"The
concept of peak oil has not been widely written about. But people
are talking about it now. It deserves a careful look—largely
because it is almost certainly correct."
New
York Times, Editorial (online), March 1, 2006
By
Dr. Colin J. Campbel
WHEREAS the passage of history has recorded an increasing pace
of change, such that the demand for energy has grown rapidly
in parallel with the world population over the past two hundred
years since the Industrial Revolution;
WHEREAS the energy supply required by the population has come
mainly from coal and petroleum, such resources having been formed
but rarely in the geological past and being inevitably subject
to depletion;
WHEREAS oil provides ninety percent of transport fuel, is essential
to trade, and plays a critical role in the agriculture needed
to feed the expanding population;
WHEREAS oil is unevenly distributed on the Planet for well-understood
geological reasons, with much being concentrated in five countries
bordering the Persian Gulf;
WHEREAS all the major productive provinces of the World have
been identified with the help of advanced technology and growing
geological knowledge, it being now evident that discovery reached
a peak in the 1960s, despite technological progress and a diligent
search;
WHEREAS the past peak of discovery inevitably leads to a corresponding
peak in production during the first decade of the 21st Century,
assuming no radical decline in demand;
WHEREAS the onset of the decline of this critical resource affects
all aspects of modern life, such having grave political and
geopolitical implications;
WHEREAS it is expedient to plan an orderly transition to the
new World environment of reduced energy supply, making early
provisions to avoid the waste of energy, stimulate the entry
of substitute energies, and extend the life of the remaining
oil;
WHEREAS it is desirable to meet the challenges so arising in
a co-operative and equitable manner, such to address related
climate change concerns, economic and financial stability, and
the threats of conflicts for access to critical resources.
NOW IT IS PROPOSED THAT
A convention of nations shall be called to consider the issue
with a view to agreeing an Accord with the following objectives:
• to avoid profiteering from shortage, such that oil prices
may remain in reasonable relationship with production cost;
• to allow poor countries to afford their imports;
• to avoid destabilizing financial flows arising from
excessive oil prices;
• to encourage consumers to avoid waste;
• to stimulate the development of alternative energies.
Such an Accord shall have the following outline provisions:
• The world and every nation shall aim to reduce oil consumption
by at least the world depletion rate.
• No country shall produce oil at above its present depletion
rate.
• No country shall import at above the world depletion
rate.
• The depletion rate is defined as annual production as
a percent of what is left (reserves plus yet-to-find).
• The preceding provisions refer to regular conventional
oil—which category excludes heavy oils with cut-off of
17.5 API, deepwater oil with a cut-off of 500 meters, polar
oil, gas liquids from gas fields, tar sands, oil shale, oil
from coal, biofuels such as ethanol, etc.
Detailed provisions shall cover the definition of the several
categories of oil, exemptions and qualifications, and the scientific
procedures for the estimation of Depletion Rate.
The signatory countries shall cooperate in providing information
on their reserves, allowing full technical audit, such that
the Depletion Rate may be accurately determined.
The signatory countries shall have the right to appeal their
assessed Depletion Rate in the event of changed circumstances.
