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Saturday's
Lagniappe
Venezuela
Presidential Race Tightens
By
Dr. Douglas E. Schoen
A nationwide tracking poll conducted among the most likely Venezuela
voters in advance of the December 3rd Presidential Election
shows the race tightening between incumbent President Hugo Chavez
and opposition candidate, Governor Manuel Rosales, with Chavez
losing support and Rosales picking up considerable support in
recent weeks.
The data collected shows that President Hugo Chavez leads Manuel
Rosales by just 6 points, compared with a lead of 13 points
in September.
The November poll found 48% voting for Chavez and 42% voting
for Rosales. Compared to Penn, Schoen & Berland's poll in
September, Hugo Chavez's level of support has declined 2 points,
from 50% to 48%, while Manuel Rosales has increased his level
of support 5 points from 37% to 42%.
Question Text: If the presidential elections were held today
for whom
would you vote?
September / November
Hugo Chavez 50% / 48%
Manual Rosales 37% / 42%
Benjamin Rausseo 3% / 1%
Undecided 9% 9%
"The
momentum is clearly with Rosales," said Dr. Douglas E.
Schoen, Chairman of Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates. "Rosales
is making inroads and the country is now evenly divided on the
direction of the country and Chavez's performance as president."
Penn, Schoen & Berland's data follows a similar pattern
of Alfredo Keller of ASKA Partners, whose recent poll found
that Chavez's lead has diminished significantly from 50% for
Chavez and 37% for Rosales in September, to 52% for Chavez and
48% for Rosales as of last week.
Penn, Schoen & Berland's survey also asked Venezuelans to
rate the job Hugo Chavez is doing as president.
Chavez's rating declined slightly since September, and the public
is now evenly split. Today, 50% say Chavez is doing an excellent
or good job as president and 50% think Chavez is doing just
a fair or poor job as president.
Question Text: How would you rate the job Hugo Chavez has done
is doing as President?
Excellent, Good, Fair or Poor?
September / November
Excellent - Good 51% / 50%
Fair - Poor 48% / 50%
Don't Know 1% / 0%
The poll also asked Venezuelan's whether they believe the country
is headed in right direction or is headed in the wrong direction.
Dr. Schoen found that sentiment indicating that the country
is headed in the wrong direction has increased since the last
poll, and public opinion is now evenly split.
About this Dr. Schoen said, "When 50% of the people think
that you are doing a bad job and almost 50% of the people say
that the country is moving in the wrong direction, that is a
real cause for alarm for any incumbent. Simply put, many Venezuelans
are clearly unhappy with how things are going under Hugo Chavez."
Question Text: In general, do you think that things in Venezuela
are going in the right direction or are they off on the wrong
track?
Sept / Nov
Venezuela is moving in the right direction 48% / 47%
Venezuela is moving on the wrong direction 39% / 46%
Undecided on this question 14% 6%
The
Penn, Schoen & Berland poll was a nationwide poll of 1,000
likely voters. The administration of the survey was designed
to ensure that survey respondents felt anonymous.
This was an independent poll done for a consortium of business
leaders seeking an accurate read of the where the race stands.
For
more on the survey: See presentation of the results on Nov.
15, 2006
( Spanish) PDF/Encuesta
Penn, Shoen and Barland.ppt
Dr. Douglas E. Schoen is
one of the world's leading authorities on measuring public opinion.
Over his 30 year career that has included work on 6 continents,
Dr. Schoen has worked for Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Ehud
Olmert, Tony Blair, Silvio Berlusconi, Leonel Fernandez, New
York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, and New Jersey Governor Jon
Corzine. Dr. Schoen is one of the founding partners and current
Chairman of Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates, which is
based in New York City and Washington, DC. Petroleumworld
not necessarily share these views.
