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Venezuela, Faith in Chávez Starts to Wane
European
Pressphoto Agency
Long lines to buy subsidized food last month in San Antonio de Tachira.
By
Simon Romero
These
should be the best of times for Venezuela, blessed with the
largest conventional oil reserves
outside the Middle East and oil prices near record highs.
But this country’s economic and social problems have become
so acute lately that President Hugo Chávez is facing
an unusual onslaught of criticism, even from his own supporters,
about his management of the country.
In
a rare turnabout, it is Mr. Chávez’s opponents
who appear to have the political winds at their backs as they
reverse policies of abstention and prepare dozens of candidates
for pivotal regional elections. Mr. Chávez, for perhaps
the first time since a recall vote in 2004, is increasingly
on the defensive as his efforts to advance Venezuela toward
socialism are seen as failing to address a growing list of
worries like violent crime and shortages of basic foods.
While
Mr. Chávez remains Venezuela’s most powerful
political figure, his once unquestionable authority is showing
signs of erosion. Unthinkable a few months ago, graffiti began
appearing here in the capital in January reading, “Diosdado
Presidente,” a show of support for a possible presidential
bid by Diosdado Cabello, a Chávez supporter and governor
of the populous Miranda State.
Outbreaks
of dengue fever and Chagas disease have alarmed families
living in the heart of this city. Fears of a devaluation
of the new currency, called the “strong bolívar,” are
fueling capital flight. While the economy may grow 6 percent
this year, lifted by high oil prices, production in oil fields
controlled by the national oil company, Petróleos de
Venezuela, has declined. Inflation soared by 3 percent in January,
its highest monthly level in a decade.
In
fact, some economists see a slow-burning economic unraveling
playing
out in a country flush with oil revenues. But as Mr.
Chávez embarks on his 10th year in power, it is becoming
harder for him to blame previous governments for the malaise.
This
holds true especially in poor areas where voters failed to
turn
out in support of the president in a December referendum
on a constitutional overhaul that would have vastly increased
Mr. Chavez’s powers, a stinging defeat from which the
president has yet to recover. “I cannot find beans, rice,
coffee or milk,” said Mirna de Campos, 56, a nurse’s
assistant who lives in the gritty district of Los Teques outside
Caracas. “What there is to find is whiskey — lots
of it.”
The
contrast between revolutionary language and the consumption
of imported
luxury items by a new elite aligned with Mr. Chávez’s
government, known as the “Bolivarian bourgeoisie,” has
led to questioning of the priorities of his political movement. “Chávez’s
revolution has stalled, but it can move forward if he can solve
some problems,” said Daniel Hellinger, a political scientist
at Webster University in St. Louis who follows Venezuela. “I
don’t envy him the challenge of trying to make the country’s
government more effective in people’s daily lives.”
Mr.
Chávez highlighted the challenge after his defeat
at the polls when he called for a year of “revision,
rectification and relaunching.” He issued an amnesty
decree for opponents who had been charged with supporting a
brief 2002 coup and shook up his cabinet, replacing his vice
president and ministers in charge of the economy and fighting
crime.
But
for each minor policy shift or good economic statistic from
the
government, Mr. Chávez has stirred deeper anxiety
by intensifying threats to expand state control of the economy
and society. For instance, Mr. Chávez warned Monday
that he would nationalize large food distributors caught hoarding
groceries.
Pedro
E. Piñate, an agricultural consultant in the
city of Maracay, said: “We live in two countries, one
inhabited by officials who think they can alter reality by
sending soldiers to intimidate citizens. The other country
is where the rest of us live in fear of being killed or kidnapped
or of our businesses being seized.”
This
fear is reflected in a statistic that is illegal to publish
in
Venezuela: the black-market value of the strong bolívar,
or bolívar fuerte, put into circulation at the start
of the year to replace the old bolívar. Its value hovers
around 5.2 to the dollar according to currency traders here,
less than half at the official rate, 2.15.
For
other domestic problems, Mr. Chávez’s approach
has been equally erratic. After the recent outbreak of dengue
fever, which reached into his cabinet to infect Culture Minister
Francisco Sesto, the president did not shake up the public
health system. Instead, he called for an investigation of claims
that the disease may have been altered into a more virulent
strain as part of an attack on Venezuela by unidentified enemies.
Enemies
of Venezuela have rarely been more threatening than in recent
weeks, according to Mr. Chávez, who has elevated
a political dispute with President Álvaro Uribe of Colombia
to the point of mobilizing troops.
Last
month, Mr. Chávez claimed Colombian military officials
were conspiring with American officials in Bogotá to
kill him. It was the 25th time that Venezuela’s government
said that Mr. Chávez was the target for assassination
since 2002, according to Tal Cual, a newspaper here.
As
these domestic and economic troubles accumulate, Mr. Chávez
faces a new test this year in state and municipal elections,
with a reinvigorated opposition. Mr. Chávez stands to
lose some authority if opponents win just a handful of important
states or cities, almost all of which are now controlled by
his supporters. Even more unpredictable are the dynamics within
the president’s own movement, with insurgent candidacies
clamoring to challenge the status quo.
“Chavismo is most vulnerable at the local and state
level,” said Steve Ellner, a political scientist at Oriente
University in eastern Venezuela. “That opens great opportunities
for the opposition to erode Chávez’s power and
influence, beginning with big gains in the elections held at
the end of this year.”
Amid
growing calls for debate and the grooming of new leaders
in the Socialist
Party he created last year for his followers,
Mr. Chávez is trying to instill discipline within its
ranks. He called for party members to be expelled if they initiated
candidacies too soon for coming elections. The rule apparently
does not apply to Mr. Chávez, whose bid to remove term
limits for the presidency, along with other proposals to transform
Venezuela into the hemisphere’s second socialist state
after Cuba, was rejected by voters in December.
He
mentioned a proposal last month to hold a vote in 2010 to
allow him
to run for re-election in 2012, when his current
term expires. Billboards proclaiming “Por Ahora” — “For
Now” — have gone up in the capital, reminding Venezuelans
that Mr. Chávez will not give up his quest to reconfigure
society.
Mr.
Chávez has also not given up on his efforts abroad
to deepen alliances with like-minded leaders. For instance,
even as Venezuela struggles with a shortage of oil-drilling
rigs, the government has sent two rigs to Ecuador, whose president,
Rafael Correa, is a Chávez supporter.
This
foreign aid, once tolerated by Mr. Chávez’s
supporters, is emerging as a source of resentment among those
left out of the country’s oil boom. “I see Chávez
traveling and traveling abroad, and the money ends up somewhere
else,” said Jesús Camacho, 29, who sells coffee
on the street in Catia, an area of slums here, making about
$8 a day.
Mr.
Camacho said he had always voted for Mr. Chávez
but had recently lost faith in politics. “This situation
will be fixed by no man,” he said. “Only God.”
Simon
Romero is New York Times' correspondent in Caracas.
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02/09/08
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