Editorial cartoon by John Sherffius.
An image of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez wearing a crown and is superimposed on a balot. The ballot choices are 'Si' and 'Shut up.' An 'X' marks the box for 'shut up.' Caption says: 'The referendum on Chavez.'
By Tim Padgett
Gunmen have started dumping bodies down the hillside garbage chute in La Silsa. The slum, one of the poorest that ring Caracas, was crime-ridden when I was a teacher there in the 1980s. But residents like housewife Gladys Rodríguez tell me the barrio has become a killing field over the past few years, and that corpses are sometimes found atop the rubbish pile below her street. "That's what things have come to," says Rodríguez, 36. "How do you hide your kids from that?"
You can't, which is why Rodríguez says she's conflicted about Venezuela's referendum on Feb. 15, over whether to eliminate presidential term limits. President Hugo Chavez wants to amend the constitution so that he can run for a third six-year term in 2012. On the hustings, the former paratrooper insists that only if he stays in Miraflores, the presidential palace, will "the people stay in power." He's taken to ending his rallies with a campaign slogan that anticipates the vote's outcome: " Oo-ah, Chávez no se va! " Chávez isn't leaving!
Most residents of La Silsa hope Chávez is right. Like other poor Venezuelans, they're grateful for the poverty-reduction programs and medical clinics Chávez has lavished on barrios like theirs. The potable water, power lines, subsidized grocery stores, community councils that give average people more political say — they had none of that 20 years ago. Since Chávez's leftist revolution began in 1999, though, Venezuela's oil wealth has been redirected into populist spending programs that keep the poor on side and Chávez in power.
Can it last? Poor Venezuelans know from experience the pain of the bust that follows a boom, and with oil hovering around $40 a barrel some of Chávez's socialist agenda will surely face cuts after the referendum. Many people have begun asking why the radical who so boldly stands up to the U.S. can't confront the violent crime that plagues the country and leaves scores dead each weekend. "I know in my heart that life is better here than it was 10 years ago," says Tobías Caravallo, 42, who owns an electronics repair shop in La Silsa and is a devoted Chavista. But "we need more police on the streets. Better police."
Polls suggest that Chávez has a narrow lead. Places such as La Silsa are likely to decide the outcome — though in a previous plebiscite, in 2007, his supporters failed to turn out in big enough numbers and voters rejected scrapping term limits, among other proposals. But even if Chávez fails a second time, few doubt he'll try again before 2012. Fans say he needs to complete his revolutionary goals. "He's leading a transformation of our society," says Chávez's former ambassador to the U.S., Bernardo Alvarez. "And we should let voters let him continue it." Foes, who have had violent, tear gas-soaked clashes with police during marches for the no vote in the past few weeks, say Chávez has an egomaniacal obsession with being President for life. "This isn't a constitutional amendment," says opposition leader Leopoldo López. "It's a constitutional violation."
However you see it, ending term limits seems increasingly popular around Latin America. Chávez remains the standard-bearer of the region's resurgent left; and after his first attempt to change the constitution, leftist Presidents Evo Morales of Bolivia and Rafael Correa of Ecuador had their own term limits relaxed by popular vote. Colombia's conservative President, Alvaro Uribe, won't deny that he hopes to engineer a constitutional fix letting him seek a third term when his second mandate ends next year. The trend has democracy watchdogs fretful about a return of the Latin caudillo. ( See pictures of Colombia's guerilla army .)
But despite his authoritarian image, Chávez is not a dictator nor a 21st century Castro. He's been democratically elected three times, subjected himself to a 2004 recall vote (which he defeated) and permits a noisy opposition press. But John Walsh, senior associate at the Washington Office on Latin America, an independent think tank, says Chávez's political hegemony already threatens checks and balances on the government. Like other analysts, Walsh points to the hundreds of opposition politicos, like López, barred from running in regional elections last year due to obscure corruption charges leveled by Chávez's government.
The opposition, whose leadership includes holdovers from the corrupt élite Chávez overthrew, has done little to offer a viable political alternative. Its weakness is another reason Chavistas insist their hero should be able to run again. "Chávez is the only leader who can hold all the nation's poles together,' says Tarek William Saab, the pro-Chavez governor of Anzoategui state on Venezuela's eastern coast. "His opponents are panicked because they know they can't win if he's the candidate." Former Chávez Information Minister Andrés Izarra says fear that an opposition leader could win the next presidential race if Chávez isn't in the running will rev up the Chavista machine on Feb. 15. "The base will see Chavismo more directly at risk than it was in 2007. This time it will mobilize," says Izarra. Chávez warns that an opposition victory in 2012 would prompt "a war."
The immediate threat, though, is economic. Venezuela relies on oil and gas for 93% of its export revenues. López says Chávez is rushing the term-limits question to the polls again before the drop in oil prices hammers the economy and shrinks his checkbook. Inflation is more than 30%, and the country faces shortages of staples such as milk. Chávez insists his government has stored away reserves to cushion the looming pain and recently pledged that "even if the price of oil drops to zero," the social largesse will keep flowing.
Yet even as Chávez puts a gloss on the economic outlook, some Chavistas wonder if venality has seeped into his own government — including millions of dollars in alleged payoffs to officials described last year at the Miami trial of a wealthy Venezuelan businessman. (Chávez officials deny the charges.) "Chávez needs to know that we see the tremendous houses and cars these so-called socialists have," says Isabel de Lemus, 70, a shop owner in La Silsa who sits on a revolutionary community council.
People close to Chávez concede privately that the corruption issue has hurt him. Perhaps that's why he recently warned supporters who have benefited from the oil boom that "this isn't a revolution of Hummers." As for the soaring crime rate, Chávez says that a major overhaul of the police and judiciary is coming. He'll have to hope that's enough to eke out a victory in a few days' time. "We will recognize the result, as we always have, whatever it is," he said last week. And if it doesn't go his way, he may just keep trying until it does.
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