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In Colombia, presidential race is no done deal

The Washington Post/Juan Forero

Presidential candidate Juan Manuel Santos, a former defense minister, greets vendor Marleny Fernandez and samples an oblea during a visit to Popayan, a historic city in southwestern Colombia.

By Juan Forero

POPAYAN, COLOMBIA -- In speech after speech, Juan Manuel Santos, candidate to succeed President Alvaro Uribe in Sunday's election, reminds his audience that he was Uribe's defense minister when the most decisive blows were delivered against the country's much-reviled guerrillas.

The message is clear: Santos wants Colombians to see him, and not the other five candidates running for office, as the natural heir of a president popular for his security policies. Yet the Uribe magic has failed to rub off on Santos, and polls show that it is Antanas Mockus , an eccentric former Bogota mayor who emphasizes social issues and clean government, who has the momentum.

The two candidates are in a virtual tie in at least four recent polls, and neither is expected to get the 50 percent needed to win outright Sunday. If that happens, a runoff between the two will take place June 20.

Mockus's momentum has created a dilemma for Santos, 58, a Harvard-educated economist who is a favorite in Washington for having shepherded billions in U.S. military aid for the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking. Political analysts said Santos needs to retool his campaign so that he benefits from what Colombians like about Uribe while distancing himself from what they do not, namely a string of scandals that have marred his two-term presidency.

"Being associated with the Uribe government is a mixed blessing," said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington policy group that studies Latin America. "There's success, but the administration is also associated with a lot of problems and a lot of scandal."

Just three months ago, pundits predicted that Santos would cruise to victory.

In a country obsessed with security, he had overseen an army that recuperated territory once under guerrilla control while killing or capturing rebel commanders once thought invincible. Santos also extolled extensive economic experience, having served as minister of finance and commerce, and his close ties with lawmakers in Washington and Europe.

"He's really good at speaking the language up here, able to press the right buttons, on security, on investment," said Adam Isacson, an analyst at the Washington Office on Latin America who tracks U.S. military aid to Colombia. "And he does it in a way that would make them much more comfortable than with Uribe." The problem for Santos, according to political analysts, is that Colombians do not feel as comfortable with him as they do with Uribe.

A rancher from northern Colombia whose father was killed by guerrillas, Uribe successfully projected himself as an outsider willing to take on the establishment. He effortlessly connects with villagers, and is famous for his hours-long weekly town hall meetings.

Santos is the scion of one of Colombia's most influential families, which for decades controlled the country's most influential newspaper. Articles in Colombia's press describe him as more comfortable playing golf or poker with friends from the political establishment than shaking hands with working-class Colombians.

On a recent swing through Popayan, a historic city in Colombia's southwest, Santos appeared uneasy as he began walking the cobblestone streets. With a presidential candidate in their midst, people handed him their babies and took photographs.

"Are you going to visit the poor neighborhoods?" asked Marleny Fernandez, 72, a vendor. "I invite you to my little house."

Santos answered, "Not today, but I will go."

His entourage then quickly veered off to a meeting with the city's business leaders.

"Uribe knows pueblo life to its very depth in a way few Colombian leaders know," said Aldo Civico, a Colombia expert and director of Columbia University's Center for International Conflict Resolution. "Santos has not spent his life talking to farmers and ranchers so this is a new role for him. And no matter how much you prepare, you can't invent charisma."

The inability to connect, and the baggage Santos carries as a member of the capital's elite, has left him unable to gain traction in the polls. Mockus, meanwhile, skyrocketed from the 3 percent approval he had in January.

"The big problem for Santos is that he appears to be rejected by a public that seems to increasingly like the option that is being planted by Mockus," said Maria Jimena Duzan, a magazine columnist who is highly critical of Santos.

Santos has also had to repeatedly explain that as defense minister he aggressively put a stop to a scandal that roiled the army in 2008, when it was revealed that troops were killing innocent civilians to inflate combat kills.

"That was the most devastating experience for me in the three years that I was defense minister," Santos said in an interview in Popayan, noting that he cashiered nearly 30 officers and soldiers, including three generals.

He has also increasingly focused on how, as president, he would improve the lives of ordinary people in a country with grinding poverty . He said that the Uribe administration had increased foreign investment, "but in a way, we have failed in translating that foreign investment in well-being and prosperity for all."

Asked in a recent interview by El Pais, Spain's leading paper, if fatigue over Uribe's governing style is hurting him, Santos agreed.

But he added, "You have to take into account that I'm not Uribe."

"And if Colombians are tired over a particular style of governing, they can rest assured," he said, "because I have my own way of governing."

Juan Forero is a foreign correspondent based in Bogota, Colombia, for The Washington Post and is responsible for covering Colombia and Venezuela. Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.

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Petroleumworld News 05/30/10

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