Security Council unlikely to agree tough sanctions on Iran -- experts

By Gerard Aziakou
AFP
UNITED NATIONS
Petroleumworld.com 01 13 06

Hauling Iran before the UN Security Council over its nuclear ambitions is unlikely to lead to crippling sanctions against Tehran and the international community prefers pursuing negotiations aimed at delaying Iranian acquisition of an atomic bomb, experts say.

Responding to Iran's decision to resume sensitive nuclear fuel work, Europe's three major powers on Thursday asked for an emergency meeting of the UN nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to refer the issue to the UN Security Council, which could slap sanctions.

"We believe the time has now come for the Security Council to become involved to reinforce the authority of IAEA resolutions," the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany, who have been trying to coax Iran into renouncing a nuclear weapons capability, said in Berlin.

US Middle East experts interviewed dismiss the prospects of biting sanctions on Iran.

Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, felt that the Europeans would be reluctant to slap tough sanctions against Tehran.

"But there are other things you may be able to do: diplomatic sanctions, reducing the size of Iranian representatives abroad, reducing the size of the embassies, maybe barring some transfers of technology," he said. "There are things you can do along the margins, which can be not very substantial but do have some symbolic importance at least."

UN diplomats here said it was premature to discuss the various sanctions options given that the ball was still in the IAEA court.

They said the issue was unlikely to come before the 15-member council before next month when the United States takes over the rotating presidency of the powerful body.

A European official speaking on the margins of the Berlin meeting said the IAEA board of governors could be convened "in the coming weeks". He refused to be more specific.

"What we want to do is use the authority and weight of the Security Council to bring home to Iran the importance of abiding the resolution of the IAEA," the official said. "Don't expect us to move straight to sanctions."

Britain, France and Germay have been leading more than two years of delicate negotiations with Iran to allay Western fears that it is seeking to develop a weapons programme, a charge the Islamic republic strongly denies.

Iran sparked a furious international reaction this week for breaking seals on three nuclear facilities in order to resume nuclear fuel work.

"The Iranians have significant oil and gas reserves and the excess capacity in the system is quite tight," Jon Alterman, Middle East Program Director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, told AFP.

"So the Iranian bet is that with the current oil energy market there is no way that serious sanctions that will cripple the government are possibly in sight," he told AFP. "The assumption is that the world can talk and bluster but at the end of the day it will not threaten (their) grip on power."

Alterman pointed out that neither Russia nor China -- two veto-wielding permanent members of the Security Council which have significant economic interests in Iran -- were likely to back biting sanctions.

"If push comes to shove, they (Russians and Chinese) don't want a war with the Iranians but they want the Iranians to reduce the level of tension that they are creating," he added. "And sanctions will not frighten the government of Iran."
Alterman saw the whole negotiating process as "a time game".

"The Iranians want a negotiating process because they want to avoid other kinds of solutions, especially military ones. Europe wants a negotiating process because it wants to demonstrate that diplomacy can bring better success than the US military invasion of Iraq," he said. "The US can't really think of a much better option and if the Europeans want to bang their heads against the wall with Iranians ..that's OK."

"So everybody's interest is in pursuing some sort of dysfunctional negotiating process which somehow delays Iran's acquisition of a bomb," Alterman said. "But if the Iranians want to acquire a bomb in all likelihood they will."

As to the prospect for US or Israeli military action against Iranian facilities, he said: "I don't see the prospect of either one in the near term but I could envisage any number of scenarios in the next five years where that would be an option."

AFP 01 12 06

Copyright © 2006 AFP. All rights reserved

 

 

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