Morales,
Brazilian leader to meet tomorrow
By
Harold Olmos
AP
BRASILIA
Petroleumworld.com 01 13 06
Natural gas and geopolitics will top the agenda when Bolivian
president-elect Evo Morales meets with President Luiz Inacio Lula
da Silva in Brazil.
But
the larger question will be whether Morales follows Silva's example
of shedding his leftist rhetoric in favor of market friendly reforms
and fiscal conservatism or joins the likes of Cuba's Fidel Castro
and Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, leading South America further
to the left. The two leaders are to meet Friday.
The
parallels between Morales and Silva are numerous, both men are
former-union leaders who rose up from their countries' underclasses
to become president.
And
Morales has stirred fear among the United States and international
investors that he would lead his country to nationalize industries,
just as Silva scared investors before taking office.
Oil
companies, including Brazil's state oil company Petrobras SA,
Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Spanish-Argentine firm Repsol YPF, have
invested some $3.5 billion during the past 10 years, helping find
and develop South America's second largest natural gas reserves
after Venezuela's.
But
analysts here see many signs that suggest Morales will follow
Silva's path rather than risk further isolating his small, poor
and landlocked country.
"To
a certain point, that is already happening," said David Fleischer,
a political analyst at the University of Brasilia. "It's
enough to look at the tone of his speeches since he was elected."
During
a visit to China Monday, Morales declared that country his ideological
ally.
But
in Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium and France, Morales reassured
political leaders and energy executives that his government will
respect foreign capital.
Morales
has also found common ground with Bolivian business leaders, telling
them he would work to attract foreign investment and create jobs.
Morales
will stay in Brasilia just a few hours Friday, but his visit is
considered key to ensuring stability for his government and to
promoting investments that would dramatically increase revenue
in one of Latin America's poorest countries.
Silva
is expected to work to help Bolivia achieve full member status
in the South American trade bloc Mercosur alongside Brazil, Argentina,
Paraguay and Uruguay.
"The
full membership will confer on Bolivia international diplomatic
attention and at the same tie the country to the democratic clauses
that oblige members to respect democracy," Fleischer said.
It
should also help improve dialogue between the Morales' government
and the United States, which was been strained by Morales' often
fiery rhetoric - has declared he would be "a nightmare"
for the United States.
And
as a leader of the coca growers union, Morales has promised to
end U.S.-sponsored programs to eradicate coca, the raw material
for cocaine.
But
Morales has said that does not mean he will be soft on drug trafficking,
which he has vowed to combat rigorously.
What
is unclear is if this combat will involve cooperation with the
United States, without which Bolivia would see its possibilities
limited. The anti-cocaine campaign is also important for Brazil,
which is increasingly becoming a destination for the drug.
Silva
is hoping to win from Morales assurances that Bolivia will continue
to supply his country natural gas. And is likely to lure the Bolivian
leader with some costly Brazilian industrial plans.
Associated Press, 01
12 06
Copyright
© 2006 AP. All rights reserved
