East-West tensions heat up in Canadian election

By Deborah Jones
AFP
VANCOUVER
Petroleumworld.com 01 16 06

Canada's vast and economically important west could gain a greater role on the national stage in next week's vote, and failure to do so could fuel budding separatist sentiment there, experts say.

Each election, Western Canadians hope their geographically vast region will influence the national government. On most voting days, long before polls close in oil-rich Alberta or British Columbia on the west coast, the government is chosen in more populous Central Canada, two to three time zones eastward.

Pundits say this election will be different. This time, says political scientist Norman Ruff, British Columbia will be "the government maker or government breaker."

But if western expectations are dashed this round, alienation could grow stronger, warned Roger Gibbins, president of the Canada West Foundation think tank in Calgary, Alberta.

"Support for independence in the west has been very much at the margins," he said. Many westerners have worked within the system to have their concerns heard nationally, he said.

If they fail this time, he said, "what do those people do? ... a lot of them may consider more radical responses. I think there will be agitation to thinking of ways of disengaging the west from the national government."

Throughout most of the country, the election is expected to be a tight race between two main rivals for the 308 seats in Canada's House of Commons.

The incumbent Liberals, whose minority government fell in November, are trying to fend off challenges by the opposition Conservatives, led by Albertan Stephen Harper, who managed the merger of two right-wing parties, as well as the third national party, the New Democrats.

In Quebec, the separatist Bloc Quebecois is expected to retain a majority of seats.

Historically, the Liberals have dominated Canadian politics, and the country has long been preoccupied by the independence movement in the francophone province of Quebec. Most Canadian prime ministers, including incumbent Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin, have hailed from Quebec.

Because the three prairie provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, and coastal British Columbia often elect Conservatives, the west has had slim government representation.

This election will be different, says Gibbins.

The Liberals are fighting charges of corruption over government spending in Quebec and trailing Harper's Conservatives, according to the latest public opinion polls.

With no party expected to win a federal majority, the spotlight is now on unpredictable British Columbia as the possible king-maker. Here, at least 14 of the province's 36 seats are too close to call, says Ruff, professor emeritus at the University of Victoria.

If the Liberals win, says Gibbins, it will be due to Westerners.

"If we're talking about a Liberal minority government, it'll be because they did well in BC."

In December, the Conservatives released a special west coast action plan "Stand up for BC". More recently, the Liberals pledged hundreds of millions of dollars for projects such as the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver, expansion of a convention centre and improvement of major highways and ports.

"BC's interests are counting in Ottawa like never before," heralded the Vancouver Sun newspaper.

But, no matter which party wins with western support, there's no guarantee that western concerns will come to the fore. A minority government may need support from Bloc Quebecois politicians to stay in power, and even if Albertan Harper becomes prime minister, "the number-one concern he's going to have to address is Quebec," said Gibbins.

"There will be some people in Western Canada who will grumble at this ... it will take some maturity on the part of Western Canada to realize that the challenges will be acute."

AFP 01/15/06

Copyright © 2006 AFP. All rights reserved

 

 

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