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Record prices may have silver lining for oil-thirsty US
By Jean-Louis Doublet
AFP
WASHINGTON
Petroleumworld.com 04 24 06Record high oil prices pose a risk to the United States but may be blessing in disguise by forcing the world's biggest consumer of oil to look at conservation and alternative energy.
The jump in crude oil to records above 75 dollars a barrel, and resulting surge in gasoline to over three dollars a gallon (3.8 liters) has created intense worries about US economy.
Companies such as Wal-Mart have expressed concerns about energy costs being passed through to many goods while also crimping consumer spending.
"With the consumer, the transport sector and low-end retailers set to be buffeted by these price spikes, we may in the process of seeing the knockout blow being delivered to the consumer and the economy, but it's too soon to say for sure," says John Kilduff, analyst at Fimat USA.
Yet the crisis may also be an opportunity. It has led to more talk, even from President George W. Bush, about energy alternatives.
"Keeping America competitive requires affordable energy," Bush said in his January State of the Union message. "And here we have a serious problem: America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world."
Although the United States is the third largest oil producer behind Saudi Arabia and Russia, it remains the biggest importer as well to meet the country's vast energy needs.
It is the potential for a conflict with Iran -- the fourth largest oil producer and in Bush's eyes part of the "axis of evil" -- that has led to the recent surge in oil prices.
Bush is not the first US president to talk about energy problems. In 1977, president Jimmy Carter donned a cardigan at the White House in a televised address to urge Americans to cut back on heating.
The current president is touting alternatives such as switchgrass, ethanol and clean coal, and has pressed on several occasions for new nuclear electric plants. No nuclear plants have been authorized in the US since the Three Mile Island accident in 1979, although the last one came into service a decade ago.
Even with fuel prices at historic levels, Americans appear to be wedded to their automobiles -- including a large number of fuel-guzzling sport utility vehicles. But even that scenario is seen by some as an opportunity.
General Motors chairman Rick Wagoner said in a recent interview with that although the SUV segment may not be growing, the use of grain-based ethanol is on the rise.
GM is equipping a large number of vehicles to run on E85 -- a mixture of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline.
"E85 is a huge opportunity that could develop surprisingly fast," Wagoner said.
But US refiners are moving slow in developing ethanol, which is now being used as an additive in most motor fuels to replace the cancer-causing MTBE.
Some say the energy crisis may lead to other kinds of solutions such as telecommuting.
"The average worker commutes 16 miles (25 kilometers) each way to work every day. That adds up to more than 8,000 miles (13,000 kilometers) per year going to and from work," said John Challenger of the consulting firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas, arguing that the latest spike may boost the number of those working at least part of the time from home from the current level of 20 percent.
"Companies will be forced to help ease the financial burden of higher gas prices or risk losing their workers to companies located closer to their homes or companies that offer primarily telecommuting."
AFP 04 24 06 0758 GMTCopyright © 1994-2006 Agence France-Presse. All Rights Reserved.
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