  |
China's clout over North Korea tested by missile crisis
By Cindy Sui
AFP
BEIJING
Petroleumworld.com 07 11 06
North Korea's missile tests show China has limited influence over the fiercely independent regime, but this stems more from a lack of willpower rather than clout, analysts said.
China provides the most aid to the North, including fuel to run its automobiles and airplanes, and food for its impoverished people, but it is extremely reluctant to use these resources as a political tool.
"It's not that China has no capability to pressure North Korea, but rather China lacks willingness to pressure North Korea," said Shi Yinhong, professor at the People's University. "China has to consider its own benefits."
North Korea is dependent on China as its top aid provider, and prefers Beijing's help to the assistance it gets from its second-biggest source of aid, South Korea.
"China's aid is indispensable and more reliable than South Korea's," said Shi, adding that it had fewer political implications for the North's leader Kim Jong-il.
"He knows if he accepts a lot of South Korean assistance, sooner or later, North Koreans will believe the South's system is better than North's."
Aid figures are kept secret, as Pyongyang does not want the world to know how much it depends on China.
However, two-way trade alone jumped 14.8 percent year-on-year in 2005, surging to a record high of 1.58 billion US dollars, according to Chinese figures.
Most of it involves Chinese exports of crude oil and other fuel products, as well as grain, cereal and machinery to the North. In exchange, it receives only small amounts of coal, iron ore, wood and scrap metal.
Analysts agree that without Chinese assistance, the Korean regime could collapse, and it is that prospect which ensures Beijing continues sending aid to the North.
"If two countries' economic relationship is completely cut, then the Korean government will face a lot of pressure surviving," said Cui Yingjiu, an expert at Beijing University's North Korean Culture Research Institute.
China fears instability in North Korea, which could see US troops stationed in South Korea moving north to vie with Beijing over control of the North, which China wants as a buffer between US allies South Korea and Japan.
Kim Jong-Il is fully aware of this and confident China will not abandon him, analysts said.
His disregard of warnings from China about test-firing the volley of missiles last week is a sign of that confidence and of Beijing's limited powers of persuasion.
"Outsiders think China has a lot of influence, but Kim doesn't listen to anyone," said Cui.
Mindful that North Korea tends to become more independent as more pressure is exerted upon it, China has in the past has opted for a softer approach, continuing aid while encouraging economic reforms.
"It was partially successful back in 2002 because they got them to do some reforms, but the North Korean leadership panicked," said Paul French, who runs Access Asia, a Shanghai-based consultancy that specializes in market and economic analysis on the North.
The North's leaders fear "when you open the window, flies come in. They're very concerned about outside influence," French said.
The United States, Japan and some Chinese experts believe that China, which has not supported a tough UN resolution in the wake of the missile tests, could do more to pressure Pyongyang given the strong hand it holds.
"China gives itself too little flexibility. I think when necessary, we should consider limited, temporary and non-publicized economic pressure," Shi said.
Subtle pressure has worked in the past. China briefly shut an oil pipeline to the North in 2003, citing technical problems, and succeeded in pressuring Pyongyang to join six-nation talks to end its nuclear arms program.
But Beijing is generally reluctant to use strong-arm diplomatic measures.
China has so far only sent top negotiators to the North and proposed a non-binding chairman's statement to replace the UN resolution.
Asked whether it would consider any changes in its aid to North Korea, a foreign ministry spokeswoman said last week that China had "no such consideration so far."
AFP 11 0743 GMT 07 06
Copyright ©2006 AFP. All Rights Reserved.
Your
feedback is important to us!
We invite all our readers to share with us
their views and comments about this article.
Write to editor@petroleumworld.com
Any
question or suggestions, please write to:
editor@petroleumworld.com
Best
Viewed with IE
5.01+
Windows
NT 4.0, '95, '98 and ME +/ 800x600 pixels