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Russia-Georgia crisis masks careful political calculation: analysts
By Stephen Boykewich
AFP
MOSCOW
Petroleumworld.com 10 03 06The latest crisis between Russia and Georgia is a carefully orchestrated affair in which both sides are playing on international relations to achieve domestic political goals, analysts said Monday.
The diplomatic spat sparked when Georgia arrested four Russian officers on spying charges last week has seemed to escalate chaotically, with Russia evacuating its diplomats and President Vladimir Putin accusing Georgia of "state terrorism."
But in reality, analysts said, both sides are making careful calculations that take into account both the perceptions of the international community and their own domestic goals.
"I don't know whether those officers did what they were accused of, but that's not the question here," said Fyodor Lukyankov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.
Saakashvili is hoping "to provoke Russian to an inappropriate reaction" so it loses credibility as a mediator and peacekeeper in Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Lukyanov said.
Saakashvili has made it his top priority to restore control over the regions, but has been hampered by their strong support for Russia, which provides financial backing for the separatist regimes and leads peacekeeping forces there.
"Saakashvili knows very well that regardless of the current crisis, if Russia uses force, it automatically loses. He's decided to completely discredit Russia as a member of this process," Lukyanov said.
His analysis matched comments Sunday by Georgian Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili that "the existing format of negotiations and peace operation must not remain as it is" in the two breakaway republics.
"The Russian Federation, which plays a dominant role in the conflict resolution process is an interested party rather than an independent and unbiased mediator," Bezhuashvili said, according to a transcript on the ministry's web site.
And in spite of Russia's fierce public statements during the diplomatic crisis, "Russia doesn't need to attack Georgia because they already control everything in Georgia that they want... except for the government," said Kevin Rosner, head of the Brussels-based Centre for Energy Defense.
Saakashvili's pro-Western regime has been in constant conflict with Moscow since it came to power in 2003, and has enraged the Kremlin by pushing for membership in NATO.
With the current crisis, Russia "wants to sow discontent in the national government for the next time elections come around," Rosner said.
Russian pressure "is a long-term strategy to wear away the will of the Georgian people and the good will they've expressed... on issues like integrating into the EU, joining NATO as full member, charting an independent course, and openly confronting Russia."
Slowing or halting Georgia's course toward NATO is a particular priority for Moscow, since "when you talk about Ukraine or Georgia, it crosses a Rubicon in the Russian belief system," said Clifford Kupchan, an analyst at the Washington-based Eurasia group.
Maintaining influence over its closest ex-Soviet neighbors is one of Russia's highest priorities, and with oil dollars flooding into the economy, "this Russian government has the power to do things that the Yeltsin government didn't" to defend its interests, Kupchan said.
Still, Lukyanov pointed out that "in spite of the harsh words from Putin, there were no concrete demands or ultimatums, which would have been easy to give."
Putin also seemed to step back from possible military escalation by ordering that the withdrawal of Russian troops, which was halted after the arrests last week, resume on Sunday.
"The question is whether Russia can be led into acting on its emotions. If so, Saakashvili's plan will be carried out, but it may come at a very high cost for Georgia," Lukyanov said.
AFP 021352 GMT 10 06
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