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With sanctions, Japan looks to push China, not NKorea
By Harumi Ozawa
AFP
TOKYO
Petroleumworld.com 10 15 06
Japan has demonstrated firm resolve on North Korea by banning all its imports but has also shown it has few options left on Pyongyang other than pressing other countries to get tough, analysts said.
Analysts doubted the import ban in itself would be a major blow to North Korea, which is already under a swathe of Japanese sanctions.
Instead, Japan's hard line on North Korea over its declared nuclear test appeared to be a calculated strategy to prompt stronger action from the North's key economic partners -- namely China.
"I don't think the economic damage from Japan's new sanctions will be so significant on North Korea," said Lee Yong-Hwa, a professor of North Korean studies at Kansai University.
"But more important will be the political effects of slapping (on) the sanctions."
Japan has tense relations with North Korea, which fired a missile over its main island in 1998 and has admitted kidnapping Japanese civilians in the 1970s and 1980s.
On Friday, Japan completely banned imports -- mostly seafood, mushrooms and men's suits -- and ships from North Korea in response to the communist state's announcement that it had tested its first atomic bomb.
New Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government called the move a sign of Japan's new assertiveness, as it took action on its own before the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on Saturday.
Abe has also pledged to step up the military alliance with the United States to protect Japan from the communist regime.
But analysts said Japan had few options left. Much of Japan's economic relationship with North Korea is below the official radar, such as remittances from Koreans living in Japan.
The latest sanctions rather appeared to be aimed at forcing the hand of China, which has tried to improve sour ties with Japan since Abe took office last month.
"By Japan taking the strong measures, China may have had to give concessions by allowing financial sanctions at least," said Hiroyuki Okada, Hosei University's professor emeritus for international politics and economics.
"The impact on China should not be ignored," Okada said.
China on Saturday backed the sanctions imposed on North Korea by the UN Security Council. But the question remains how much Beijing will enforce restrictions on its impoverished neighbor.
"China's actions will be more important to North Korea because, if Beijing stops its supplies of oil and other resources, the damage to its economy would be significant," Okada added.
China is North Korea's largest economic partner, with trade totalling 1.39 billion dollars in 2004, according to Japan's foreign ministry.
South Korea, which has tried to reconcile with its neighbor, had 700 million dollars in trade with the North in 2004, with Japan's trade standing at 250 million dollars.
Yasuhiko Yoshida, a professor of international relations at Osaka University of Economics and Law, said he doubted that China would get tough on the micro-level trade that is important for the North.
"Small-time merchants easily will continue crossing the Yalu River unless Chinese soldiers stop them, which I doubt they would," he said.
Toshihiro Shimizu of the Japan International Volunteer Center, a non-governmental organization dispatching aid workers to North Korea, also doubted Japan's sanctions would influence the North.
"Unless China and South Korea join, there wouldn't be much impact," he said.
And even if the Japanese sanctions start to bite, it would be a long time before the pressure are felt by Kim Jong-il's regime, he said.
"In the end, it would be ordinary people who suffer from sanctions under the political system in the North, where the authorities put the priority on protecting their power rather than on the people."
AFP 15 0343 GMT 10 06
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