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CERA study says 'peak oil' theory clouds truth on future supplies
Platts
New York
Petroleumworld.com 15 11 06
Discounting concerns that the world is facing a shortfall of oil,
Cambridge Energy Research Associates said Tuesday the actual global oil
resource base is 3.74 trillion barrels -- three times as large as the 1.2
trillion barrels estimated by proponents of the "peak oil" theory.
In a study, CERA said the peak oil argument is based on faulty analysis
which could, if accepted, "distort critical policy and investment decisions
and cloud the debate" over the future of energy.
"The global resource base of conventional and unconventional oils,
including historical production of 1.08 trillion barrels and
yet-to-be-produced resources, is 4.82 trillion barrels and likely to grow,
said Peter Jackson, CERA's director of oil industry activity, in the study.
"The 'peak oil' theory causes confusion and can lead to inappropriate
actions and turn attention away from the real issues," Jackson added. "Oil is
too critical to the global economy to allow fear to replace careful analysis
about the very real challenges with delivering liquid fuels to meet the needs
of growing economies."
Some analysts, notably the US' Matthew Simmons, have said Saudi Arabia,
the world's biggest oil producing country, may have overstated its crude
reserves and might not be able to meet future demand for crude because its
oilfields are in decline. Saudi officials, for their part, have said the
kingdom is in no danger of hitting peak production in the next few decades.
According to the CERA analysis, demand growth will likely no longer be
largely met by growth in available, commercially exploitable natural oil
supplies. Non-traditional or unconventional liquid fuels such as production
from heavy oil sands, gas-related liquids (condensate and natural gas
liquids), gas-to-liquids, and coal-to-liquids will need to fill the gap, the
study said.
--Richard Rubin, richard_rubin@platts.comFor more news, request a free trial to Platts Oilgram News at
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Platts 14 11 06
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