  |
|
Gulf needs to invest more than 500 billion dlrs in oil: experts
AFP
ABU DHABI
Petroleumworld.com 01 11 07Gulf states need to pump 523 billion dollars over the next 25 years to lift their oil production capacity and meet a steady growth in global demand, experts said in a book published Wednesday.
But such investments could be hampered by ambiguity about world oil consumption, uncertainty in war-ravaged Iraq and socio-political turmoil in Saudi Arabia and other regional oil heavyweights, said the book written by a group of international oil experts.
"The expected growth in the Middle East's oil production requires spending of at least 523 billion dollars in capital for exploration, production and development of oil fields until 2030," according to the book published by the Abu Dhabi-based Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research.
"Annual spending in this sector has to rise from an estimated 12 billion dollars at present to 23 billion annually in the last decade of the mentioned period," it said.
The 375-page book, titled "Gulf oil after the war on Iraq -- Strategies and Policies," noted that oil investments in the Middle East remain a fraction of the required global oil capital of more than 2.2 trillion dollars.
The book attributed the smaller capital requirements in the Gulf to the fact that the region has the lowest crude production costs in the world.
It estimated the cost of adding one barrel of oil a day to existing crude output capacity in the Middle East at 4,600 dollars compared with a world average of 10,200 dollars and as much as 22,000 dollars in the North Sea.
It gave no breakdown for capacity expansions but Saudi Arabia, the world's oil superpower, has been locked in a multi-billion-dollar programme to maintain its current output capacity of 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd) and expand it to 12.5 million bpd by 2009.
The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have spoken of plans to boost capacity to four million bpd each, while Iran also intends to raise capacity despite existing financial and technological constraints due to ongoing sanctions by the US and other Western powers.
Besides upstream projects, Gulf states need to invest 99 billion dollars to expand their refining production capacity from around six million bpd in 2002 to 10 million bpd in 2010 and nearly 15.6 million bpd by 2030, according to the book.
"There are doubts surrounding oil investments in the Middle East and this creates ambiguity about the future of crude supplies from the region," the study said.
"Such doubts stem from the uncertainty about oil demand and the policies adopted by producers, mainly regarding allowing foreign investment in their oil sector," it said.
"Another factor is the political element as the region has started to face uncertainty following the US-led invasion of Iraq, besides the Arab-Israeli conflict and the state of socio-political tension prevailing in the Gulf region."
AFP 10 1630 GMT 01 07
Copyright© 2001 AFP.All Rights Reserved.
Your
feedback is important to us!
We invite all our readers to share with us
their views and comments about this article.
Write to editor@petroleumworld.com
Any
question or suggestions, please write to:
editor@petroleumworld.com
Best
Viewed with IE
5.01+
Windows
NT 4.0, '95, '98 and ME +/ 800x600 pixels