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Cautious road ahead for East Asia's big three: analysts
AFP
CEBU, Philippines
Petroleumworld.com 01 16 07When leaders from China, Japan and South Korea sat round a table in the ballroom of an upmarket Philippines hotel, it signalled more than the start of yet another diplomatic pow-wow.
For analysts, it underscored the cautious revival of the relationship between East Asia's big three after years of rancour and missteps.
But they warn there is still much to do to mend the past, and how the three countries get on will shape the region as it tackles problems from managing economic growth to North Korea's nuclear programme.
"The relationship between the East Asian countries remains delicate," said Xu Jingbo, a researcher with the Japan Research Centre at Fudan University in China.
"ASEAN provided a stage for the three countries to have their summit," Xu said, referring to the weekend gathering of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations where the leaders met.
"This is a good way to improve ties, with ASEAN serving as a buffer so the three won't feel awkward about the tension between them, because it's hard for them to have direct talks when they still have serious problems to deal with."
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao and President Roh Moo-Hyun of South Korea met Sunday in Cebu on the sidelines of the ASEAN gathering for their first joint summit in two years.
Wen later described the meeting as "an improvement" on what had gone before and "beneficial for peace and stability in the East Asian region."
He arrived first as the host, followed by Roh and then Abe. With Wen in the middle they shook hands before each took one side of a three-cornered table.
The scene was in stark contrast to previous regional gatherings attended by Abe's predecessor Junichiro Koizumi, when frictions between Japan and China in particular cast a shadow over diplomatic efforts in East Asia.
Koizumi infuriated Japan's neighbours by repeatedly visiting the Yasukuni war shrine in Tokyo.
The Shinto shrine honours Japan's war dead, including WWII leaders condemned by the US-led allied power as top war criminals, and is seen by critics as a symbol of Japan's militarist past.
Yoshikazu Sakamoto, an emeritus professor of international politics at the University of Tokyo, said relations between Japan, China and South Korea have only now returned to where they were before Koizumi.
"What the three leaders have to do is to maintain top-level dialogue from now on," he told AFP. "However, relations remain fragile. It is still unclear if Abe is to visit Yasukuni while he is in office."
He said Japan's decision to upgrade its defence agency to a full ministry also put Beijing on edge. "China's distrust of Japan has remained unchanged," he added.
Fudan University's Xu however agreed that China and Japan were making an effort.
"China and Japan have adopted an attitude of improving relations and trying to relax tension in east Asia," he said, and with Wen accepting an invitation to visit Japan, "I think the relationship of the two sides is progressive."
"But there are many problems as well, like the oil and gas dispute in the East China Sea and the regional security issue," Xu cautioned.
"Abe just finished a European trip in which he convinced the European Union not to lift its arms embargo on China. China won't be happy with that."
Sakamoto also noted a different style between Japan and its neighbours on reining in North Korea's nuclear weapons programme. Tokyo takes a much firmer line against Pyongyang while Beijing and Seoul favour engagement.
Abe also has ramped up pressure on the emotional issue of the abduction of Japanese nationals by North Korean agents during the 1970s and 1980s.
"Abe is unlikely to give in to North Korea over the issue of abductions," Sakamoto said, "while China and South Korea want to give the nuclear issue top priority, which may isolate Japan during the six-way talks."
Jin Chang-Soo, a Japan expert at the private Sejong Institute think tank in Seoul, said it was "significant" that Abe, Wen and Roh could meet in Cebu and "take a step -- not huge though -- toward building mutual trust.
"There are pressing or easier-to-tackle issues that they can tackle without wrangling over sticky issues," he told AFP, citing shared concerns over North Korea and tackling seasonal dust storms caused by environmental degradation in northern China.
AFP 160443 GMT 01 07
Copyright© 2001 AFP.All Rights Reserved.
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