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Obasanjo to hand over Nigeria to handpicked successor
AFP
ABUJA
Petroleumworld.com 05 29 07Outgoing Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo will on Tuesday hand over power to the man he handpicked to succeed him, Umaru Yar'Adua, who was a little-known governor of an obscure northern state.
The handover is the first from one civilian administration to another since Nigeria's independence in 1960.
Yet the election that Yar-Adua won was considered by most foreign observers to have been rigged by the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP).
Yar'Adua's supporters say he will be up to the task of running Africa's most populous country and biggest oil producer and suggest the incoming president is neither as meek nor as self-effacing as he may appear at first.
Others however have doubts.
"Okay, he ran Katsina State but running Katsina is like running Festac town. He's not up to the complexities of running Nigeria," said one analyst and businessman, who requested anonymity, referring to a district of Lagos.
He also cautioned that however competent Yar'Adua may turn out to be, the new president will have his hands tied by those he owes for their election support.
"He'll have to pay loyalty to the caliphate, to the military establishment, to the political party and to the business community, and he'll have to take into consideration the interests of the international community," the analyst said.
Yar'Adua needs to curb rampant corruption, improve the country's democratic record and create better living conditions for ordinary Nigerians rather than simply improving macroeconomic numbers.
Obasanjo is leaving 46 billion dollars (32 billion euros) in foreign exchange reserves, thanks to Nigeria's oil and gas resources.
Yet Nigerians have complained that in his last 48 hours in office Obasanjo's administration hiked petrol prices at the pump by 15 percent.
"The more money the Obasanjo regime made the poorer the Nigerian people became and... the richer a few people became, including Mr. President himself,"
said lawyer and rights activist Gani Fawehinmi in a recent interview.The incoming president also needs to establish a degree of independence from Obasanjo, who is widely expected to try to retain some behind-the-scenes influence.
Of the slew of problems Yar'Adua will face, none will be trickier to handle than the situation in the Niger Delta where around 180 foreigners have been taken hostage in the past 18 months.
Already a few oil-related companies have scaled back operations in the region, in response to the level of violence there.
Some of the militant groups carrying out the attacks say their aim is to cripple oil production completely. Other more criminal elements just want to collect ransom payments.
In an interview with AFP in March, Yar'Adua conceded that the people of the Niger Delta do have genuine grievances.
His position differs from that of Obasanjo who tended to lump together militants and criminal gangs in the region.
Whether Yar'Adua and his running mate Goodluck Jonathan, who originates from Bayelsa State in the delta region will be able to resolve the crisis is a moot point.
" Traditional wisdom is to say that things will improve once Jonathan gets in, but in fact it was the removal of his former boss Diepreye Alameseigha (as Governor of Bayelsa State) that made things get worse there," said an oil and gas analyst.
" Alameseigha was a bandit and he knew how to deal with those armed groups," the analyst continued, doubting that either Jonathan or Yar'Adua would have that capacity.
Tackling corruption will also be a challenge, given the scale of the problem in Nigeria, observers say. An estimated 400 billion dollars has evaporated from the country's coffers since independence, according to a recent report.
Given the challenges facing Yar'Adua, the incoming president's ill health also worries many observers.
After his emergency evacuation to Germany right in the middle of the electoral campaign for treatment for a mysterious ailment, they question whether he is physically up to the gruelling task ahead of him, and if so, for how long.
AFP 28 1702 GMT 05 07
Copyright© 2007 AFP. All Rights Reserved.
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