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Russia's treaty freeze puts pressure on Europe
By Conor Humphries
AFP
MOSCOW
Petroleumworld.com 07 16 07Russia's decision to withdraw from a key European arms treaty ratchets up pressure on the European Union as an assertive Moscow tests Brussels' resolve, analysts said.
Russia announced Saturday that it would suspend adherence to the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) arms control treaty, a key agreement that limits the deployment of forces in central and eastern Europe.
But while US moves to install anti-missile bases in the region were seen as a key cause of the Kremlin's decision, it is Europe that is likely to suffer most from the fall-out, analysts said.
" The CFE treaty is much more important to the European countries than the United States," said Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent defence analyst.
Russia "has other problems with Europe and here we have another factor reducing confidence and deteriorating relations," he said.
While actual troop deployments are unlikely to change much, the biggest practical effect of Russia's decision will be an end to mutual inspections and confidence-building measures governed by the treaty, Felgenhauer predicted.
" Confidence will worsen especially with the European countries," he said.
The hope in Moscow is that the uncertainty will weaken European resolve over a number of issues, analysts said.
" It will push Europe into a more active position on missile defence," Interfax news agency cited Ivan Safranchuk of the International Centre on Defence Information as saying.
Europe has largely backed US plans for an anti-missile radar station in the Czech Republic and interceptor rockets in Poland, plans which Russia says threaten to upset the balance of power on the continent.Others were doubtful attempts to pressure the EU would bear fruit.
" Europe will be extremely uneasy over this and Russia is hoping that this nervousness will lead to a softening of its position," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the Moscow-based journal Russia in Global Affairs.
" But I think these calculations are wrong and that a frightened Europe will throw in its lot with the United States."
He said the decision to freeze the CFE was part of a wider Kremlin move to use its newly found strength to remould the foundations of transatlantic relations.
" It wants to revise the rules of the game in the Euro-Atlantic area written when Russia was weak," he said.
Russia also appears to be using its geopolitical strength to put pressure on Europe over business ties, said political analyst Boris Kagarlitsky, director of Moscow's Institute for Globalization.
The withdrawal from the treaty "will be seen in the West as an attempt to put pressure on a number of issues including in the economic sphere," he said.
Disagreements over energy security and a dispute over deliveries of Polish meat have prevented Moscow and Brussels from agreeing a new mutual cooperation agreement.
" At some stage Russia will put all of these things on the table. Whether it gets what it wants is another question," Kagarlitsky said.
AFP 14 1706 GMT 07 07
Copyright© 2007 AFP. All Rights Reserved.
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