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US NOAA now sees 13 to 16 named storms and 7 to 9 hurricanes
Platts
Washington
Petroleumworld.com 08 10 07
US forecasters on Thursday revised slightly downward their outlook for
the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, but continued to maintain expectations for
an above-normal season.
Entering August, September and October, traditionally the peak months of
the Atlantic weather season, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
forecasters predicted an 85% chance of an above-normal season, with the
likelihood of 13 to 16 named storms, of which seven to nine will become
hurricanes. Of those, NOAA said three to five could develop into severe storms
of Category 3 strength or better.
In its May outlook, the agency predicted the season would bring 13 to 17
named storms and seven to 10 hurricanes, of which three to five would be
intense.
In its latest update, NOAA said the development of key climate factors
through early August has increased the confidence of an above-normal season,
and has also led the NOAA team to slightly tighten the ranges that had been
given in their May outlook because of the development of La Nina-like
conditions exerting influence.
"Most of the atmospheric and oceanic conditions have developed as
expected, and are consistent with those predicted in May," Gerry Bell, lead
seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said in a
statement. "The biggest wild card in the May outlook was whether or not La
Nina would form, and if so, how strong it would be."
"Today's El Nino/La Nina forecast from the Climate Prediction Center
indicates a slightly greater than 50% probability that La Nina will form
during the peak of the hurricane season. But more importantly, we are already
observing wind patterns similar to those created by La Nina across the
tropical Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea that encourage tropical cyclone
development. The conditions are ripe for an above-normal season." (Story, 1324
GMT)
The agency said that to date in the current season, there have been three
Atlantic named storms, which is slightly above average. On average, one to two
storms develop in June and July. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June
1 through November 30.
Platts 09 08 07
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