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U.S. natgas falls to two-week low on declining demand forecasts

 

 

Reporting by Scott DiSavino / Reuters

NEW YORK
Petroleumworld 09 21 2021

Traders noted U.S. prices fell even though gas in Europe and Asia hit record highs

over $25 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) versus just about $5 for the U.S. fuel. Buyers around the

world kept on purchasing all the liquefied natural gas (LNG) the United States can produce.

Global prices are high due to Asia’s insatiable demand for gas and Europe’s scramble to refill stockpiles

The United States is already producing as much LNG as it can, and the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG

export plants slipped to an average of 10.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September from 10.5

bcfd in August, according to data provider Refinitiv. That compares with a monthly record of 11.5 bcfd in

April.

Traders said U.S. LNG exports were reduced this month by a brief shutdown at Freeport LNG’s plant in Texas

during Tropical Storm Nicholas and start of maintenance at Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s Cove Point in Maryland

on Monday.

Front-month gas futures fell 18.0 cents, or 3.6%, to settle at $4.805 per mmBtu, their lowest close

since Sept. 7.

Since hitting a seven-year high last week, the front-month has dropped about 12% over the past four days on growing expectations the United States will have enough gas in storage for its winter heating season. That

is the longest losing streak for the front-month since May.

U.S. gas stockpiles were about 7.1% below their five-year normal for this time of year.

Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to an average of 90.6 bcfd so far in September

from 92.0 bcfd in August, due mostly to Ida-related losses along the Gulf Coast. That compares with a monthly

record high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.

About 0.6 bcfd, or 27%, of gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remained shut-in since Ida hit

Louisiana on Aug. 29, government data showed on Friday.

With milder weather due, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would fall from

86.3 bcfd this week to 83.5 bcfd next week as air conditioning use declines.

Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year

Sep 17 Sep 10 Sep 17 average

(Forecast) (Actual) Sep 17

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 68 83 74 70

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,074 3,006 3,671 3,311

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -7.2% -7.1%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year

Last Year Average Average

2020 (2016-2020)

Henry Hub 4.96 5.12 2.28 2.13 2.66

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 25.49 25.18 3.94 3.24 5.19

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 27.19 25.00 4.63 4.22 6.49

Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year

U.S. GFS HDDs 32 35 56 52 61

U.S. GFS CDDs 87 87 75 94 86

U.S. GFS TDDs 119 122 131 146 147

Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year

Last Year Average For

Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 90.9 92.0 92.3 87.2 82.6

U.S. Imports from Canada 7.2 7.2 7.3 6.1 7.6

U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

Total U.S. Supply 98.1 99.2 99.6 93.3 90.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.0 2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.0

U.S. LNG Exports 10.2 9.8 9.9 5.6 3.1

U.S. Commercial 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.8

U.S. Residential 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.5 3.8

U.S. Power Plant 33.5 31.7 28.4 30.8 32.8

U.S. Industrial 20.9 21.0 21.0 21.6 21.1

U.S. Plant Fuel 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4

U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9

U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total U.S. Consumption 69.4 68.1 65.0 68.4 68.9

Total U.S. Demand 87.8 86.3 83.5 81.8 79.3

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

Henry Hub 5.25 5.32

Transco Z6 New York 4.30 4.90

PG&E Citygate 7.20 7.14

Dominion South 4.26 4.76

Chicago Citygate 4.96 5.02

Algonquin Citygate 4.49 5.00

SoCal Citygate 8.82 7.19

Waha Hub 4.66 4.73

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

New England 53.50 66.00

PJM West 41.25 49.00

Ercot North 46.00 60.75

Mid C 82.25 64.00

Palo Verde 68.25 64.25

SP-15 72.25 69.00


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