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Oil demand tests supplies, high prices crimp consumption: IEA
AFP
PARIS
Petroleumworld.com 04 12 06
Demand for oil has tested OPEC supplies to the limit, production in some countries remains at risk from political tensions and high oil prices are now crimping demand, the IEA warned on Wednesday.
As oil prices pushed upwards to record high levels, the IEA held to a forecast that demand would grow by 1.8 percent this year.
But it said: "Cold weather and supply outages lifted the first-quarter call on OPEC crude and stock-change 700,000 barrels per day above OPEC supply, pointing to a draw in first quarter global balances."
The report also presented new data for the hurricane year of 2004, the starting point for the continuing rise of prices, which showed that global demand for oil had risen even faster than had been apparent at the time.
The International Energy Agency said in its April report: "Despite upward revisions to Saudi and Libyan capacity this month, effective spare capacity amongst OPEC members remains thin at 1.7 million barrels per day."
The report said that supplies by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in February had been revised upwards by 225,000 barrels per day on evidence of a sharp increase in exports by Iran, but that in March OPEC supplies had fallen by 215,000 barrels per day to 29.7 million barrels "on Nigerian outages and lower Iranian and Iraqi exports".
The report also commented that damage to Iraq's northern pipeline suggested that exports to Ceyhan were "unlikely for some time".
The IEA revised down slightly its estimate for growth of global demand for oil from 1.49 million barrles per day to 1.47 million barrels per day.
It also upgraded the baseline for all its calculations because detailed data was now avalaible for market conditions in 2004 when hurricane damage had severely disrupted the world market.
This showed that demand had been 310,000 barrels a day more than calculated. But the agency said that an adjustment of this sort had been expected, and the key factor now was the estimate for coming growth of demand.
The report said that the latest data showed that "demand grew by an astonishing 7.6 percent outside the OECD in 2004".
It said: "China and the Middle East led the way, with 15.4 percent and 7.5 percenmt growth respectively.
"Although many non-OECD economies continue to expand rapidly, aside from the Middle East, demand growth has fallen off substantially with the rise in oil prices. In 2005, non-OECD demand is estimated to have grown by only 2.7 percent and in 2006 it is expected to increase by 3.1 percent."
The overall effect of the new data was to "raise 2004 demand growth from its already exceptional 3.8 percent to 4.0 percent and growth for 2005 is lifted from 1.2 percent to 1.3 percent.
"However, there is little impact on oil demand trends in 2006, with growth unchanged at 1.8 percent.
"That this remains close to the long-term trend of oil demand growth is testimony to the current strength of the global economy. Without high prices, oil demand would undoubtedly be much stronger."
AFP 04 12 2006 0818 GMT
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