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OPEC says high oil prices begin to bite
By Michael Adler
AFP
VIENNA
Petroleumworld.com 05 15 06
OPEC cut its estimate for growth of world demand for oil slightly on Wednesday, saying that high oil prices were slowing demand in developed countries although Chinese demand remained dynamic.
OPEC also sought to reassure about the availability of supplies, and of spare production capacity.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report that world oil demand would grow in 2006 by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) or by 1.7 percent to total 84.6 million bpd, a "marginal downward revision" by 60,000 bpd from its previous estimate.
"High oil prices have contributed to a slowing of incremental demand mainly in the Developed Countries, especially for those countries where product subsidies have been reduced," the OPEC report said.
It said "oil demand growth in North America is expected to ease by 200,000 bpd".
Demand growth "is expected to come mainly from China, increasing by 500,000 bpd", the report said.
But despite the slight slowing in the growth in the world's thirst for oil, demand for OPEC oil was expected to average 28.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2006, an upward revision of 100,000 bpd in the estimate, the 11-nation cartel said.
OPEC said it expected to increase its overall production capacity to "around 33 million bpd by year-end".
It said: "If OPEC were to produce at 30 million bpd -- the highest level seen last year and in the last 25 years -- this would still leave around 3.0 million bpd of spare capacity."
It said "non-OPEC supply is expected to average 51.5 million bpd in 2006, representing an increase of 1.3 million bpd over last year" and once again described the world oil market as "well-supplied".
OPEC said the parameters determing the price of its oil continue "to be dominated by geopoplitical issues and developments in the US gasoline markets".
This "kept the market in check" towards the end of April owing to the "perception that demand growth might be weaker than anticipated and easing concern over US gasoline supplies".
But OPEC was bullish on ecomic growth in 2006, saying "the recent pattern of global growth rates was maintained in the first quarter of 2006 with a strong performance from both the USA and China".
The report said: "The US economy grew by 4.8 percent following hurricane-related weakness in the final quarter of last year."
And "the Chinese economy showed little sign of deceleration as fast growing exports and investment pushed first quarter growth to 10.2 percent," according to OPEC.
"Growth in the Euro-zone showed a considerable improvement at 2.4 percent, thanks to exports and increases in business spending," OPEC said.
OPEC put growth estimates for 2006 at 3.4 percent for the United States, 1.9 percent for the euro-zone, an upwardly revised 2.7 percent for Japan and 9.3 percent for China.
"These upgrades are the main reason why the forecast of world GDP growth for 2006 has been raised to 4.7 percent," OPEC said.
AFP 17 1121 GMT 05 06
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