En Español

Very usefull links


News links




Dow Jones

Oil price



Views and News





U.S. Shale will grow even faster than they previously thought - OPEC

Matthew Busch/Bloomberg

roup raises forecast for shale oil output in annual report. Shale producers show ‘resilience and ability to bounce back'

Angelina Rascouet

Petroleumworld 11 07 017

OPEC said shale oil production will grow considerably faster than expected over the next four years after the group's output cuts triggered a crude-price recovery that helped U.S. producers.

North American shale output will soar to 7.5 million barrels a day in 2021, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its World Oil Outlook report on Tuesday. That's 56 percent higher than it forecast a year ago. The revised outlook illustrates OPEC's dilemma: with supply curbs also helping its rivals, demand for the group's crude will remain little changed until shale oil output peaks after 2025.

U.S. shale oil “most strikingly” exceeds previous expectations after showing the “resilience and ability to bounce back,” OPEC said. “This growth is heavily front-loaded, as drillers seek out and aggressively produce barrels from sweet spots in the Permian and other basins.”

OPEC assumes shale oil production growth will mostly originate from the U.S., with some contribution from Canada, Argentina and Russia over the forecast period to 2022. North American shale production for 2017 is now seen at 5.1 million barrels a day, up by almost a quarter from last year's World Oil Outlook report.

OPEC and its partners, including Russia, are meeting in Vienna on Nov. 30 to decide whether to extend the deal to curb production beyond the end of March. Since Jan. 1, they've targeted output cuts of about 1.8 million barrels a day in a bid to reduce global stockpiles.

Brent crude has rebounded more than 10 percent this year, trading at more than $62 a barrel in London.

OPEC expects shale oil production to peak after 2025 and decline from about 2030. OPEC will then be required to increase its own output from about 33 million barrels a day in 2025 to 41.4 million in 2040, according to the report.

OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand by 2.3 million barrels a day in 2021 compared with last year's report. The group said demand growth will be particularly robust in 2020 as regulations to reduce shipping pollution kick in, leading to higher refinery runs to provide the required fuels.

OPEC also raised its oil demand forecast in 2040 by 1.7 million barrels a day to about 111 million barrels. China and India will lead the demand growth, offsetting declines in developed nations, it said.

Story by Angelina Rascouet from Bloomberg.

bloomberg.com 11 07 2017

We invite all our readers to share with us
their views and comments about this article.

Write to editor@petroleumworld.com

By using this link, you agree to allow PW
to publish your comments on our letters page.

Any question or suggestions,
please write to: editor@petroleumworld.com

Best Viewed with IE 5.01+ Windows NT 4.0, '95,
'98,ME,XP, Vista, Windows 7,8,10 +/ 800x600 pixels

Nov 13-14 ;
Mexico City, Mexico







Contact: editor@petroleumworld.com,

Editor & Publisher:Elio Ohep/
Contact Email: editor@petroleumworld.com

CopyRight © 1999-2016, Paul Ohep F. - All Rights Reserved. Legal Information

PW in Top 100 Energy Sites

CopyRight©1999-2017, Petroleumworld ™  / Elio Ohep - All rights reservedThis site is a public free site and it contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner.We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of business, environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have chosen to view the included information for research, information, and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission fromPetroleumworld or the copyright owner of the material.