& Tobago


Very usefull links


News links




Dow Jones

Oil price



Views and News






Oil watchers see $70 a barrel in 2019 as recession fears fade

Play video:
Oil's Rollercoaster Ride Turns Lower to Close Out 2018

- Brent to gain next year as supply curbs start to work: survey

- OPEC and allies to cut 1.2 million barrels a day from January

By Alex Longley / Bloomberg

Petroleumworld 12 28 2018

The world's biggest banks are reckoning on a rebound in oil prices next year as fears of a recession prove misplaced.

The Brent benchmark will average $70 a barrel in 2019, almost a third higher than its price on Thursday, according to a Bloomberg survey of oil analysts. Futures in London and New York plunged this quarter, with volatility soaring in its final week as crude tracked gyrations in equity markets.


Despite plans by OPEC and its allies to limit production next year to prevent a glut from forming, oil's fortunes have increasingly been driven by moves in financial assets and concerns about the global economy. However, analysts expect markets are about to tighten as growth stays strong, OPEC's supply cuts kick in, and unintended losses in Venezuela and Iran escalate.

Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

Michael Cohen

“We could even see something similar to a V-shaped recovery next year, on two very important conditions,” said Michael Cohen, head of energy and commodities research at Barclays Plc in New York. “One, that the reduction in OPEC exports leads to a reduction in inventories. And two, that we don't see a further deterioration in macroeconomic conditions.”

Darkening Outlook

The recent weakness in financial assets has been led by a darkening outlook for the global economy amid prolonged trade dispute between the U.S. and China, and as the U.S. Federal Reserve embarks on tightening monetary policy.

While the ensuing retreat in oil prices has brought relief to consumers, it's battered the shares of companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. and BP Plc, as well as the economies of producers like Saudi Arabia.

So far, though, most commentators aren't seeing an actual recession biting the oil market next year. The median forecast of 24 oil analysts in a Bloomberg survey projects that London-traded Brent will average $70 a barrel in 2019. The price on Thursday was about $53.50 while the average so far in 2018 has been about $72.

The median forecast for WTI is $61.13. The grade traded at about $45.50 on Thursday.

Fine Balance

“Fundamentally speaking, we believe that prices are nearing a bottom,” said Michael Tran, commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets LLC. “Global supply and demand should reach a fine balance next year.”

In the absence of a severe economic slump, most analysts anticipate that world oil consumption will continue to expand at roughly the pace seen in recent years, powered by emerging economies such as China.

And although doubts remain that OPEC will cut output deep enough to prevent a surplus, the survey shows analysts are confident that the group's strategy will ultimately succeed. OPEC will begin implementing the curbs next month, and leading member Saudi Arabia has pledged to slash output by even more than it formally agreed to.

Vigorous Rally

Some anticipate a vigorous rally. The most bullish forecasts in the survey, those of Morgan Stanley and Standard Chartered Plc, project that Brent will average $78 a barrel.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with allies such as Russia, announced in early December they would reduce supply by 1.2 million barrels a day in the first half of 2019.

“The production cut announced by OPEC+ is likely sufficient to balance the market in the first half of 2019 and prevent inventories from building,” said Martijn Rats, managing director at Morgan Stanley.

But with uncertainty rife in both the political and economic spheres, the range of price estimates in the survey was, with a $20 gap between the highest and lowest. For the most bearish, Citigroup Inc., the relentless growth of U.S. shale will keep a cap on prices.

“Oil hits $70, $75 a barrel and U.S. production starts soaring,” said Ed Morse, the bank's New York-based head of commodities research, who predicts that Brent will average $59.50 next year, still about $6 above its price on Thursday. “The so-called low-cost producers in OPEC and non-OPEC are losing market share.”

Shale Curbed?

U.S. production will surge to 12.06 million barrels a day in 2019, according to Energy Information Administration data , more than the other two major global producers -- Saudi Arabia and Russia -- are currently pumping.

Yet the shale-oil industry may prove to be a victim of its own success. As prices in Midland , Texas -- the heartland of U.S. shale output -- fell below $40 a barrel this month for the first time since 2016, some have begun to cast doubts on how much U.S. supply will grow next year.

“These weak prices are likely to force a slowdown in U.S. growth in the second half of 2019,” said Warren Patterson, senior commodities strategist at ING NV.

— With assistance by Alex Nussbaum


Original article



We invite you to join us as a sponsor. Circulated Videos, Articles, Opinions and Reports which carry your name and brand are used to target Entrepreneurs through our site, promoting your organization’s services. The opportunity is to insert in our stories pages short attention-grabbing videos, or to publish your own feature stories.


Story by Alex Longley from Bloomberg.

bloomberg.com 12 27 2018


We invite all our readers to share with us
their views and comments about this article.

Write to editor@petroleumworld.com

By using this link, you agree to allow PW
to publish your comments on our letters page.

Any question or suggestions,
please write to: editor@petroleumworld.com

Best Viewed with IE 5.01+ Windows NT 4.0, '95, '98,ME,XP, Vista, Windows 7,8,10 +/ 800x600 pixels

Twitter: @petroleumworld1



Contact: editor@petroleumworld.com,

Editor & Publisher:Elio Ohep/
Contact Email: editor@petroleumworld.com

CopyRight © 1999-2016, Paul Ohep F. - All Rights Reserved. Legal Information

PW in Top 100 Energy Sites

CopyRight©1999-2017, Petroleumworld ™  / Elio Ohep - All rights reservedThis site is a public free site and it contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner.We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of business, environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have chosen to view the included information for research, information, and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission fromPetroleumworld or the copyright owner of the material.